Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cc0a3d89670f30463e3e33d8cb12315c0904bcae46b99751416bdeb1e7bc2e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 2c | 13,517$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.88 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 8c | 2,655$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,143$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.01 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…43cebacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 9c | 1,880$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +221.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396d…dfa3backed Yes | 7c | 1,879$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…effcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,435$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 6c | 1,238$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 9c | 1,191$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…376dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,106$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…dd99backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 5c | 936.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 6c | 877.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 853.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…6295backed Yes | 9c | 853.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a7…6548backed Yes | 8c | 616.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e0…6e9ebacked Yes | 5c | 500.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +166%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 5c | 465.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…739bbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 4c | 278.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305f…7ee0backed Yes | 9c | 235.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09eb…6d0dbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…7831backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…0db1backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6375…438cbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?this page
- No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.