Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcab1c6be218de6d0baac5ff5490ee98d8e50167d3a882094a652e6427ffe8f96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 1c | 17,124$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.47 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…edfbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 7,208$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.56 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…3277backed Yes | 2c | 5,430$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 3,591$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…c157backed Yes | 4c | 3,587$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa262…1c8fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,292$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 3c | 3,109$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,370$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.84 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…bf53backed Yes | 0c | 2,360$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…a0f7backed Yes | 3c | 2,260$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 5c | 2,198$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…334fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 5c | 1,988$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes | 3c | 1,962$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba52…605bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,662$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,355$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396d…dfa3backed Yes | 5c | 1,141$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…79adbacked Yes | 3c | 1,136$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed Yes | 3c | 1,066$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…4602backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +275%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 4c | 893.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 4c | 699.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 4c | 632$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 3c | 574.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 6c | 510.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…7c41backed Yes | 4c | 499.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 3c | 433.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…376dbacked Yes | 6c | 423.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…64e6backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Yes | 6c | 310.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…a907backed Yes | 5c | 310$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…effcbacked Yes | 5c | 263$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 6c | 256.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Yes | 5c | 200.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcedd…10d6backed Yes | 7c | 164.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 20?this page
- No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Thursday Oct 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday Oct 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Iran on Wednesday Oct 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.