Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc62da9b744184551cf8ecc30681702941d9bf719abf06f718ad71faa99f2557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac3c…d637backed No | 73c | 5,976$4,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,141$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…dfc7backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,529$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…9c3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,095$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4106backed Yes | 3c | 1,047$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,027$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 3c | 864.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 2c | 808.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 771.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 75c | 768.12$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.42 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…9247backed Yes | 73c | 762.12$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 699.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 665.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 2c | 616.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 539.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 506.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…6bb9backed Yes | 31c | 505$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…1ce1backed Yes | 5c | 442.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 8c | 401.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…6a23backed Yes | 62c | 401.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 395.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 70c | 320.37$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 53c | 311.53$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20d3…60dcbacked Yes | 6c | 310.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 66c | 301.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 49c | 293.89$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.03 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 72c | 263.31$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 41c | 251.88$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed No | 40c | 248.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 26c | 245$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 49c | 234.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 48c | 221.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 48c | 219$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 22c | 218.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 214.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…a2bcbacked No | 63c | 208.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…f745backed Yes | 55c | 194.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…aae3backed No | 57c | 164.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…5753backed No | 61c | 162.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 14c | 155.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 64c | 141.93$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed No | 77c | 129.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 35c | 128.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 52c | 127.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 60c | 107.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…31d7backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 69c | 92.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 62c | 89.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 85.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 13c | 81.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 21c | 81.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…be20backed Yes | 33c | 80.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 38c | 78.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed No | 68c | 73.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 73c | 68.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 63.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed Yes | 47c | 63.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33c3…ef66backed Yes | 63c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…0687backed Yes | 36c | 56.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…a835backed Yes | 27c | 44.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6237…bd21backed Yes | 48c | 37.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 79c | 37.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…0d8bbacked Yes | 58c | 34.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe6…f92fbacked Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…f6a4backed No | 59c | 34.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…65f7backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…86f9backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…efcdbacked Yes | 61c | 24.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f6…9404backed No | 77c | 22.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes | 70c | 21.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed No | 48c | 20.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…b4debacked No | 56c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe988…f1f3backed No | 53c | 19.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd500…b2fabacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…be20backed Yes | 77c | 13.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17?Yes won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 19?Yes won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.