TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,364 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac3c…d637backed No73c5,976$4,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c4,141$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9115217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2658…dfc7backed Yes2c2,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes8c1,529$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.03864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes1c1,180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4932…9c3bbacked Yes2c1,095$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.711118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc89…4106backed Yes3c1,047$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,027$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.871432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes3c864.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes2c808.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.985527.3%15 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c771.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.44340%0 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed No75c768.12$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.422564%16 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8d…9247backed Yes73c762.12$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c699.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.821074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c665.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.098510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes2c616.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.422544%11 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+68.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c539.26$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6917232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c506.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.441302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf70c…6bb9backed Yes31c505$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x872a…1ce1backed Yes5c442.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes8c401.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x801d…6a23backed Yes62c401.18$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c395.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbe…1559backed Yes70c320.37$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.131450%7 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+107%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes53c311.53$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.313625%9 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x20d3…60dcbacked Yes6c310.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f94…7d96backed No66c301.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No49c293.89$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.037250%36 W · 36 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed No72c263.31$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.593721.6%8 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked No41c251.88$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.483652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed No40c248.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No26c245$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.554100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+134.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes49c234.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No48c221.98$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.436647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…3239backed No48c219$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.66714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes22c218.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.913743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes25c214.8$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.055327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9997…a2bcbacked No63c208.1$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.871050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10010241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7040…f745backed Yes55c194.35$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x999c…aae3backed No57c164.07$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf422…5753backed No61c162.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes14c155.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.12429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed No64c141.93$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.122871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x782e…b317backed No77c129.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes35c128.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.681631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No52c127.01$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.481741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No60c107.09$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.666675.8%50 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787350.7%37 W · 36 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202560%15 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+50.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9619…a6c2backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143452.9%18 W · 16 L+6.4wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5364…31d7backed No51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No69c92.5$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.283815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes62c89.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.196622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No40c85.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.429416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes13c81.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.48927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes21c81.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d5…be20backed Yes33c80.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No38c78.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.994932.7%16 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf67…fc18backed No68c73.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No69c72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c68.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4626318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No73c68.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.79475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes21c63.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4911225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4534…4d07backed Yes47c63.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d42…8fbbbacked No55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271070%7 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+73.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x33c3…ef66backed Yes63c59.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf673…0687backed Yes36c56.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x654e…a835backed Yes27c44.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes54c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6237…bd21backed Yes48c37.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No79c37.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.729034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9838…0d8bbacked Yes58c34.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbe6…f92fbacked Yes58c34.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda1e…f6a4backed No59c34.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9318…65f7backed No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f7…86f9backed Yes65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x407d…efcdbacked Yes61c24.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.931241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f6…9404backed No77c22.19$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes70c21.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x208f…69d7backed No48c20.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc840…b4debacked No56c19.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe988…f1f3backed No53c19.1$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd500…b2fabacked No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf673…be20backed Yes77c13.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.