Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ca267e7a56fc36b06dbada2e24ce9ef60b949bd50e0903655eff91638507fad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed No | 1c | 8,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,691$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…014bbacked No | 0c | 3,574$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc59…fdf0backed No | 3c | 1,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 29c | 694.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked No | 15c | 680.28$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 5c | 452.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…c364backed No | 16c | 437.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9243…6328backed No | 49c | 420.52$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 60c | 328.38$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.45 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 306.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 5c | 304.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 301.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…aae3backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 66c | 192.96$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 57c | 186.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb01e…5f39backed No | 37c | 179.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 139.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed Yes | 72c | 138.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 68c | 130$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4106backed No | 33c | 125.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed No | 40c | 106.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 80.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6432…8616backed No | 41c | 72.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 65c | 71.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…9563backed No | 37c | 58.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 59c | 56.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c8…83c5backed No | 43c | 56.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…bf82backed No | 33c | 52.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…966fbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642a…117bbacked No | 40c | 49.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 41c | 49.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…ddbbbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 19?Yes won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.