Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b92f9be4bb37e3a66da22682f24053a98898e7988ab50a3226de825f2d2da23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,415$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 3c | 1,366$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +463.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…fa8cbacked No | 16c | 624.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad2…566fbacked No | 19c | 513.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 466.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 5c | 390.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed No | 26c | 387.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 79c | 381.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 16c | 361.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 16c | 361.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 5c | 338.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked No | 6c | 320$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 11c | 315.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 8c | 281.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23c…fa0dbacked No | 25c | 218.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 21c | 199.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…ca18backed No | 18c | 190.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…3cd2backed No | 7c | 155.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 8c | 145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 133.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 11c | 119.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 106.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…c364backed No | 19c | 104.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…b947backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 17c | 98.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 92.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 15c | 80.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 17c | 69.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 72c | 61.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…72ccbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…be20backed Yes | 77c | 48.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 74c | 22.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 80c | 22.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe002…33e3backed Yes | 79c | 21.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4b…dcd8backed Yes | 80c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 19?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17?Yes won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.