Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x951f02543bfbb356257088743ba8123eea68ec570ad2be5bad9872a12a566f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 23c | 5,358$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,103.16 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Yes | 35c | 2,408$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.88 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 13c | 1,234$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.41 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,138$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.13 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30b7…e34dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…807cbacked Yes | 24c | 984.76$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 20c | 848.56$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.08 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 43c | 833.63$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.77 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 702.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.14 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 12c | 643.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.04 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 594.27$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.33 | 824 | 35.8%295 W · 529 L | -38.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 589.18$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.14 | 658 | 23.3%153 W · 505 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 22c | 586.03$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.05 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 33c | 530.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.38 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 10c | 502.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.89 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 50c | 459.31$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…6dacbacked Yes | 15c | 441.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 10c | 424.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.63 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 16c | 358.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.42 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 38c | 354.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 22c | 346.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked Yes | 72c | 344.63$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 56c | 326.14$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.47 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…f259backed Yes | 17c | 320.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…fb64backed Yes | 60c | 274.75$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes | 9c | 269.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 55c | 248.87$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…cf71backed Yes | 23c | 246.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa766…d04abacked Yes | 8c | 237.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.79 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 12c | 233.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 57c | 222$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 11c | 203.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 50c | 175$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 21c | 173.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 59c | 160$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…9e99backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 26c | 104.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 68c | 98.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 29c | 78.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 61c | 74.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…e9ebbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 28c | 59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 857 | 16.5%141 W · 716 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b1cfbacked No | 58c | 58.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…cb38backed Yes | 58c | 46.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e6…a564backed Yes | 26c | 46.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…6ed2backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04c6…fffabacked Yes | 48c | 44.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8282…06a1backed Yes | 49c | 41.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…d6abbacked Yes | 45c | 33.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked No | 75c | 31.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +174.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55d…aa5cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +929.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…b02abacked No | 67c | 17.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-399 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.