Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 4-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e3af298a39a0b4d01af45cd20bf83d0bd7ab0fee83e479322459c4d734881dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 24c | 763.29$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 20c | 693.08$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 54c | 517.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.91 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 16c | 452.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 23c | 374.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 24c | 286.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 59c | 209$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 26c | 165.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…c3bebacked Yes | 35c | 164.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 78c | 117.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 108.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 10c | 106.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…eb80backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…3128backed Yes | 26c | 99.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 78c | 89.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…f2acbacked Yes | 71c | 79.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…a907backed Yes | 27c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 36c | 54.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…5263backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…f634backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 31c | 36.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…383dbacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…f8a3backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a2…4ff7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…bc2cbacked No | 33c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 4-11?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 4-11?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 4-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.