Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 4-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5a2b3f39ffab4daea8a0cbfd07374dc61016aba17b5c9d3cc38b709f0302182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x066d…e36ebacked No | 50c | 10,127$5,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,063.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…40cabacked Yes | 50c | 10,110$5,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,054.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 55c | 1,941$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,825$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.95 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 21c | 656.54$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.41 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 8c | 482.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked Yes | 73c | 411.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 30c | 320$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.4 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…c3bebacked Yes | 41c | 302.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2650…92c3backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 7c | 299.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.99 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 13c | 279.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No | 15c | 279.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 248.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.74 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed Yes | 6c | 233.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +572.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 20c | 220$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 79c | 185.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 17c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 70.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…02eabacked Yes | 50c | 35.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…a30bbacked Yes | 68c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…42dfbacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…48a2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 4-11?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 4-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.