Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 4-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cfd87a6abfa23831c5221bf9e5d53eeb6d231c6340b480af6383e5f30fbe478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb6d…5bc6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,290$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 13c | 937.45$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 12c | 920.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 7c | 449.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…c3bebacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked Yes | 14c | 291$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 27c | 232$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…96e3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…c863backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 12c | 175.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…a037backed Yes | 23c | 173.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 11c | 165.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…ef21backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…e140backed Yes | 16c | 125.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f25…a70cbacked No | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d05…f421backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed Yes | 33c | 93.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aac…aad6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 25c | 78.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4847…42febacked Yes | 36c | 69.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc936…304cbacked Yes | 36c | 64.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 24c | 63.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 24c | 48.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…fd35backed No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…85f2backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 4-11?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 4-11?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 4-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.