Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 4-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b7f9185fca6cc94710704f0aa20ba8ceafbeaba542be78436163820a9e4757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d87…f6c2backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Yes | 17c | 2,352$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 79c | 1,847$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.71 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 20c | 972.36$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 20c | 797.27$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.96 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 17c | 703.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 36c | 676.77$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.02 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 545.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 28c | 541.35$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…c3bebacked Yes | 18c | 538.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb6…077dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 75c | 463.71$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 53c | 459.97$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…7df8backed Yes | 74c | 434.33$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…fcf0backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 22c | 304.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 248.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 243.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 20c | 210.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 27c | 205.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.96 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 27c | 204.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 40c | 188.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 19c | 171.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 20c | 149.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked No | 69c | 145.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 59c | 133.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…8c52backed Yes | 16c | 128.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…f8a3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…eff0backed Yes | 52c | 96.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…626bbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…f3a1backed No | 67c | 76.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…864cbacked Yes | 21c | 76.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed Yes | 37c | 68.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed No | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 63c | 58.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae7…12bcbacked Yes | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed Yes | 42c | 52.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…1920backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…8983backed Yes | 49c | 40.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 37c | 37.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed No | 74c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…f2acbacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 4-11?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 4-11?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times October 4-11?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 4-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.