Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd33969894d0ccea17d9131e4478e9919b3628738a5c2c5078ca8b9301de76594
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 65c | 1,337$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.54 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 50c | 957.2$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.93 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked No | 4c | 835.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 69c | 803.94$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 49c | 545$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.8 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 10c | 477.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 24c | 405$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.8 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 367.87$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 45c | 365.79$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.25 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 20c | 364$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…711bbacked No | 78c | 350.73$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 60c | 340.06$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 57c | 317.96$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.84 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed No | 65c | 270.45$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +174.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 76c | 244.12$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 72c | 243.97$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.66 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked No | 73c | 233.77$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 26c | 227.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.57 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 46c | 218.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…0e8bbacked Yes | 41c | 209.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbd…3c7abacked Yes | 26c | 191.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 25c | 189.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.69 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…cd1cbacked Yes | 31c | 170.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 27c | 166.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 29c | 141.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 23c | 133.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…5362backed Yes | 49c | 116.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 57c | 113.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 26c | 111.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7267…12afbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…0b56backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…9e99backed Yes | 21c | 78.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4353…35e1backed Yes | 31c | 60.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…d77abacked Yes | 73c | 58.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebc…8b41backed Yes | 57c | 55.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0319…c7fcbacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 24c | 53.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…f0c3backed Yes | 27c | 51.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…bbeabacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 35c | 50.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…5263backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcc…b202backed Yes | 28c | 45.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…e072backed Yes | 26c | 44.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc829…8baabacked Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…709bbacked Yes | 29c | 35.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…15c9backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…22c0backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0757…6daebacked Yes | 30c | 33.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…1ab5backed No | 42c | 30.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…9bd6backed No | 72c | 28.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4360…add5backed No | 73c | 26.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…383abacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…6dacbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…52b9backed Yes | 72c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…feb6backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 13-20?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50+ times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times September 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.