Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c95de8c2331d65859e771c2e78282ba0c72aa95a42e73956a0a58645a03905
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 13c | 5,359$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.63 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 6c | 3,032$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 11c | 2,137$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.09 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,711$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,293$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.91 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 14c | 578.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 575.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 11c | 525.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 4c | 437.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 437.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…52b9backed Yes | 30c | 400.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 10c | 331$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 20c | 329.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Yes | 4c | 310.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 15c | 306.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 5c | 279$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 6c | 270$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Yes | 15c | 217.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…9e99backed Yes | 25c | 210$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…2ea9backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45b…b7ddbacked Yes | 11c | 175.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…711bbacked Yes | 7c | 172$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…a73bbacked Yes | 19c | 155$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…5ac1backed Yes | 20c | 125.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 66c | 117.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 24c | 102.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…6fffbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…e072backed Yes | 12c | 91.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…02b4backed Yes | 43c | 56.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…0b56backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…87a6backed No | 75c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 13-20?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50+ times September 13-20?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times September 13-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.