Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Frankfurt beat FC Midtjylland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d4441333d5d76f492b7ea40d0039113fc48ffbabc52007411c3b0f95cdb3736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 20c | 9,829$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.57 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 51c | 2,069$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.84 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fde…ed39backed Yes | 49c | 1,939$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 45c | 1,798$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.58 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 52c | 1,324$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.43 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 34c | 1,140$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.83 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 50c | 942.6$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.3 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…8b60backed Yes | 50c | 942.6$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 42c | 773.34$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.92 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 26c | 666$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 65c | 396.09$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 42c | 322.71$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…2af4backed Yes | 55c | 191.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 51c | 169.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 51c | 124.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 50c | 100.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d59…f80dbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 51c | 79.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…f3cdbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…900abacked Yes | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…f233backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 52c | 40.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…9143backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Yes | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes | 56c | 35.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…fd64backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…f42fbacked Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…710bbacked Yes | 49c | 32.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 49c | 32.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…ce78backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 51c | 25.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…dc36backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…5c2dbacked Yes | 51c | 21.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…c789backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…dd09backed Yes | 58c | 17.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frankfurt beat FC Midtjylland?this page
- Will FC Midtjylland beat Frankfurt?No won
- Will the match between Frankfurt and FC Midtjylland end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.