Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63d64c3ec846baf09e0bc61b0f2792fb659de095d542f910bd9b4cfb0f7f8376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,530$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…e2bdbacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 49c | 1,920$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.57 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 71c | 1,697$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.13 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes | 32c | 1,235$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…c107backed Yes | 28c | 1,073$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 28c | 1,060$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,028$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.69 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 29c | 933.49$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.86 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 32c | 602.7$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 33c | 596.47$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed Yes | 40c | 510.25$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 36c | 509.7$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.08 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc5…5e68backed Yes | 70c | 502.7$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 8c | 470$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 38c | 422.2$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 48c | 412.5$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 51c | 401.22$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 39c | 400.4$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 26c | 399.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 26c | 349$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 26c | 310.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed Yes | 27c | 295.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 71c | 290.1$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 62c | 272.87$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked Yes | 43c | 219.75$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 52c | 212$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 27c | 200.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 72c | 199.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 182.32$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae7…12bcbacked Yes | 18c | 165.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…7ee5backed Yes | 58c | 137.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 48c | 136.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 36c | 128.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 20c | 105.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfd…e841backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…11c7backed Yes | 55c | 100.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Yes | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…b5ecbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…d1fcbacked No | 75c | 82.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ef…3e53backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…5059backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 62c | 78.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…2c27backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…05bbbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…6dd1backed Yes | 51c | 68.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…19d5backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +255.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…feb6backed Yes | 33c | 63.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes | 28c | 60.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 69c | 60.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2c50backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…e2bebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…10ccbacked Yes | 67c | 49.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes | 36c | 44.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 73c | 43.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…3683backed No | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 46c | 30.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1998…be8cbacked Yes | 63c | 30.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 47c | 27.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…a64cbacked Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.