Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7be569cee54476f56d8efc162e10acf40c5b07d2640e94520e1d30cb76183b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 26c | 3,429$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 11c | 2,353$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.96 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,578$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.98 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,371$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.94 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked No | 32c | 1,316$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.39 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…f640backed Yes | 66c | 1,273$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 40c | 1,219$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.82 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 20c | 875.01$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.05 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 78c | 759.61$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 19c | 644.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.68 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 22c | 599.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.15 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Yes | 21c | 583.92$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 74c | 554.6$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.88 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed No | 8c | 549.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…e2bdbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 69c | 489.34$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 46c | 465.09$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.28 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked No | 76c | 435.69$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…7b39backed Yes | 23c | 427.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +327.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 15c | 417.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.92 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 14c | 405$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.6 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed Yes | 29c | 402.54$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 23c | 387.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.1 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 11c | 357$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 23c | 338.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.92 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 11c | 315$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 33c | 313.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 71c | 269.17$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked Yes | 41c | 210$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 192.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…7ee5backed Yes | 48c | 191.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…c4edbacked Yes | 45c | 186.48$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 20c | 182.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…4859backed Yes | 73c | 151$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 60c | 141.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…e9ebbacked Yes | 55c | 120.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…d8c5backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 69c | 107$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…cbc1backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9556…f495backed Yes | 62c | 99.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc5…5e68backed No | 39c | 90.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…7108backed No | 62c | 67.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 71c | 66.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 18c | 60.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…b83dbacked No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 51c | 47.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd06…eb1cbacked Yes | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa316…780cbacked Yes | 27c | 40.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b1cfbacked Yes | 47c | 27.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…265fbacked No | 70c | 24.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 77c | 21.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…41f2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.