Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d415153c262111147a75e9d29f03f0c1e01ee2415709cd5133365205e0e1cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 5,750$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 2,742$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.67 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 1,297$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.97 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,136$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.05 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 14c | 761.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.54 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 15c | 692.68$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Yes | 13c | 596.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed Yes | 19c | 496.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 7c | 486.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 4c | 356.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 31c | 325.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 5c | 324.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 18c | 280.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 17c | 259.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 15c | 250.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…2c27backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.