Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6225f7ba831492e795f47a78554e2752554e42ac5faf4b05b1072901a4cc5574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 48c | 2,673$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.65 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…b5ecbacked Yes | 61c | 1,630$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 24c | 1,238$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.64 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 28c | 1,219$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.44 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,150$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…c107backed Yes | 60c | 1,068$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 58c | 979.13$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.76 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 15c | 959.94$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.45 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 25c | 926.78$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.76 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 74c | 741.45$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 16c | 701.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.82 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 55c | 688.92$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.07 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 41c | 644.06$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.2 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 42c | 580.23$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.74 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 77c | 573.1$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed Yes | 36c | 571.19$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.19 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…246bbacked No | 49c | 553.73$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 20c | 507.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.77 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 65c | 484.36$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.88 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 20c | 472.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.26 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 40c | 414.5$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.07 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…a54fbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 39c | 388.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.61 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 376.06$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.29 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 347.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Yes | 24c | 334.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.73 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 59c | 316.92$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…9695backed Yes | 80c | 313.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…f640backed Yes | 70c | 299.41$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 76c | 282.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.54 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed No | 50c | 263.84$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +174.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…a3efbacked Yes | 21c | 258.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 16c | 253.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.49 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd490…43c1backed Yes | 29c | 252$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9423…6521backed Yes | 45c | 230$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 40c | 221.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 9c | 212$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.92 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…f3b6backed Yes | 59c | 211.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 24c | 209.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…c007backed Yes | 10c | 198.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked Yes | 58c | 160.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…e2bdbacked No | 75c | 157.76$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 74c | 148.47$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…d77abacked Yes | 58c | 136.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 39c | 111.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd9…8db4backed No | 25c | 109.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…a8bcbacked No | 30c | 95.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…becebacked Yes | 27c | 93.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 16c | 88.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…6dacbacked Yes | 28c | 76.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 23c | 69.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df8…e85fbacked No | 60c | 68.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…771ebacked No | 74c | 60.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…1856backed Yes | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ed…20f6backed No | 52c | 58.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…6ed6backed No | 69c | 56.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…5f80backed No | 30c | 54.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…19d5backed Yes | 38c | 52.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +255.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…a9a0backed Yes | 77c | 51.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc265…ebb8backed No | 27c | 51.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…2c27backed Yes | 39c | 50.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…a05abacked No | 55c | 49.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 58c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…0763backed No | 66c | 46.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 29c | 45.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc332…e49dbacked No | 55c | 45.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…53b2backed No | 80c | 44.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbf…71e1backed No | 60c | 41.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…ddd1backed No | 63c | 41.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…91bebacked No | 64c | 40.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2c50backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…0b3abacked No | 49c | 37.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…2e26backed No | 68c | 29.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…f0c2backed Yes | 77c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…2b89backed No | 59c | 26.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4b…1062backed No | 70c | 26.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8020…cfd9backed No | 70c | 24.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…db64backed Yes | 74c | 22.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…e9ebbacked Yes | 57c | 21.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b1cfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…1ce9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd21d…284ebacked No | 68c | 17.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db8…334bbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffa…92cbbacked No | 68c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.