Champions League · resolved market
Will Atletico Madrid beat Benfica?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a7d51048b2c2ee47bf4eb22772355404acf1df32636fcd4ceb773417d7ff836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 62c | 3,460$2,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.53 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 39c | 3,065$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 63c | 2,954$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.28 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…7814backed Yes | 38c | 1,750$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 59c | 1,184$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.28 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 35c | 1,088$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…05e7backed No | 64c | 941.72$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc275…43d7backed No | 65c | 829.23$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 36c | 671.72$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d6…ee57backed No | 66c | 416.67$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6563…6715backed Yes | 36c | 404.78$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…aca2backed Yes | 37c | 389.46$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…7718backed Yes | 34c | 345.26$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…e46ebacked Yes | 36c | 278.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e3…84d5backed Yes | 37c | 270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…55abbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…d143backed Yes | 36c | 228.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…aa67backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…f063backed Yes | 37c | 193.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc28…08b9backed No | 65c | 190.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…1ce5backed Yes | 36c | 187.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…34ffbacked No | 66c | 178.86$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 11c | 160.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 37c | 134.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…35f0backed Yes | 37c | 124.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007a…7f5ebacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef8…4dcdbacked Yes | 37c | 107.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…ef8cbacked No | 66c | 105.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…0d3abacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a4…f169backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…c69cbacked No | 63c | 59.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…83e3backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 41c | 50.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fe…e0eabacked No | 65c | 31.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7a…15ecbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atletico Madrid beat Benfica?this page
- Will Benfica beat Atletico Madrid?Yes won
- Will the match between Benfica and Atletico Madrid end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.