Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica beat Atletico Madrid?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d2ba6fb75fa38ef15c2a6ec04b86971181edb29e8711f3ec47c9ada98426635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,465$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.89 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 66c | 1,850$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.5 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,300$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.03 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 35c | 1,143$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.62 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…7718backed Yes | 35c | 999.96$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked No | 65c | 794.48$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…42e1backed Yes | 36c | 602.78$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 67c | 444$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.48 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 43c | 400.16$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…df3cbacked No | 65c | 363.52$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…a81bbacked Yes | 35c | 281.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 260$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…5f84backed No | 65c | 237.08$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d90…d769backed No | 65c | 154.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…2853backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…4e32backed Yes | 64c | 106.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…0fc9backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…807abacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…23cabacked No | 65c | 81.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8d…b65bbacked No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4150…db54backed Yes | 37c | 46.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c5…c68abacked Yes | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 30c | 35.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 57c | 34.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…83e5backed No | 70c | 28.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…50d2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica beat Atletico Madrid?this page
- Will Atletico Madrid beat Benfica?No won
- Will the match between Benfica and Atletico Madrid end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.