AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43abdf5ebd092b73ba2b8642f89f4fbe94931b88b869901e23bd01570911abf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $393,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf566…1386backed No | 34c | 4,515$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,963.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 60c | 3,600$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 7c | 3,566$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked No | 41c | 3,300$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 75c | 3,035$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 73c | 2,275$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 54c | 1,911$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.36 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,869$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked No | 75c | 1,461$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 68c | 1,395$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.28 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…e2f8backed Yes | 66c | 1,365$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca5…37b7backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 26c | 997.17$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.06 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 43c | 841.25$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 55c | 794.59$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 69c | 792.73$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e92…618abacked No | 75c | 790.65$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…431bbacked Yes | 47c | 759.65$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 55c | 650.19$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.72 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 18c | 649.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 70c | 643.81$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 69c | 641.98$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 46c | 620.19$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 59c | 566.78$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.45 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 566.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…34ddbacked Yes | 49c | 563.61$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 541.51$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.53 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 60c | 533.29$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…a618backed No | 54c | 509.97$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…0adbbacked No | 71c | 479.36$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 64c | 455.07$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdf…8cb7backed Yes | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +293.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…807cbacked Yes | 74c | 418.74$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…b29cbacked Yes | 5c | 397.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…75e4backed Yes | 10c | 370$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 70c | 347.32$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 345.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked No | 38c | 341.64$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.82 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…5ef3backed No | 60c | 323.26$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.42 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…32a7backed No | 31c | 319.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…acebbacked Yes | 64c | 307.76$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…c6cbbacked No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 54c | 292.13$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3485…70bcbacked Yes | 49c | 280.02$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 245.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 77c | 231.93$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…2d35backed Yes | 46c | 217.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 65c | 211$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 10c | 203.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed Yes | 6c | 201$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…64a8backed Yes | 37c | 199.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d9…ecaabacked Yes | 20c | 175.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 74c | 170.27$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 66c | 167.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 41c | 163.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…595cbacked Yes | 25c | 161.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…8ab3backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…ab97backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 43c | 149.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…344abacked Yes | 28c | 146.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked No | 68c | 146.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…2d7fbacked Yes | 44c | 145$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…d0d8backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…48fdbacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed No | 29c | 140$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed No | 77c | 129.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…daffbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked No | 37c | 127.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…863dbacked Yes | 71c | 125.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…5d72backed Yes | 70c | 122.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…dcd2backed No | 77c | 119.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…74bfbacked Yes | 17c | 116.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…13f8backed No | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d2…94aebacked Yes | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…f112backed Yes | 45c | 101.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10c3…db1dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6783…2179backed No | 52c | 98.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 63c | 97.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…2f0bbacked No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed No | 45c | 90.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1403…9abebacked Yes | 28c | 88.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c9…1669backed Yes | 60c | 83.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…37efbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…ac5fbacked Yes | 32c | 79.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 37c | 79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6c…8f71backed Yes | 36c | 76.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…6504backed Yes | 39c | 76.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…24fdbacked Yes | 25c | 75.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 44c | 75.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1328backed No | 73c | 68.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…4c81backed Yes | 30c | 66.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa7…4225backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.