Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8696f59eae84c6ad68547d999211df5ed9aa8129af0a3987d72bf63efeaa65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3a1…7235backed Yes | 54c | 11,010$5,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,037.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 51c | 3,400$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.9 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…fcf0backed No | 70c | 3,203$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 19c | 3,063$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.87 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 45c | 2,100$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 2,026$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.39 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked No | 11c | 1,871$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.32 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed No | 51c | 1,739$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked Yes | 35c | 1,722$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed No | 76c | 1,631$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.39 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…cac1backed No | 63c | 1,244$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,135$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.42 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 25c | 882.65$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.93 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…a619backed Yes | 20c | 773.24$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 28c | 763.69$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.37 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 79c | 730.34$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 515.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.67 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 26c | 411.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 49c | 409.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…550cbacked Yes | 17c | 398.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 17c | 396.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked No | 80c | 396.63$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 47c | 318.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 41c | 315$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed No | 68c | 295.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 59c | 271.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 49c | 254.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…2bfdbacked Yes | 80c | 250.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 239.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 22c | 228$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Yes | 21c | 224.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…fa3dbacked Yes | 14c | 209.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 59c | 202.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…2b3cbacked Yes | 15c | 200.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +556%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 67c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…f4ffbacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…efe6backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…0a71backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e18…82a0backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3634…310dbacked Yes | 12c | 197.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…809bbacked Yes | 58c | 188.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked Yes | 55c | 182.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd060…d9bebacked No | 53c | 181.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 161.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…5eeebacked Yes | 22c | 157.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +357.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…eb80backed Yes | 23c | 152.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 152.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…04a2backed Yes | 69c | 143.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632a…e29ebacked No | 80c | 135.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…f8a9backed Yes | 23c | 131.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…845ebacked Yes | 25c | 126.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 58c | 115.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…5afcbacked No | 14c | 107.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +146%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 59c | 103.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…4958backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…a907backed Yes | 60c | 99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 98.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…8983backed Yes | 70c | 94.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 38c | 77.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc9…4df4backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 46c | 73.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2e…a8abbacked No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42c…58d7backed No | 69c | 63.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed No | 37c | 62.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 40c | 57.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 37c | 57.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…ff17backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…f8a3backed Yes | 19c | 53.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 67c | 50.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…9df2backed Yes | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 33c | 34.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…0e93backed Yes | 68c | 33.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…9fbcbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 20.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…69a5backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3b…2bf1backed Yes | 67c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.