Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6f372abcc89ec22a26524e317ea4102a2f93ae3c59c01513eae054e2a9c573
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 11c | 6,777$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.12 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 11c | 4,235$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.8 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,539$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ede…fa07backed Yes | 6c | 1,509$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 16c | 1,283$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.2 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed No | 71c | 1,113$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +305.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,008$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…7df8backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…d9b6backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 6c | 999.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…2053backed Yes | 1c | 999.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 11c | 956.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes | 8c | 889.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 20c | 809.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 791.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 8c | 760.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 13c | 680.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 663.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 640.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa766…d04abacked Yes | 8c | 620.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…550cbacked Yes | 16c | 561.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 17c | 494.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9b…ec94backed Yes | 20c | 349.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 342.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 4c | 332.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…845ebacked Yes | 13c | 331$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 6c | 299.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 72c | 244.85$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…19d5backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +255.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…f41ebacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…4019backed Yes | 26c | 191.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 29c | 173.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…4379backed Yes | 17c | 162.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 141.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…eb80backed Yes | 19c | 114.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…b628backed Yes | 10c | 102.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 14c | 99.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…f5debacked Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…f2c6backed Yes | 22c | 91.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 75c | 60.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…6213backed No | 74c | 24.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times October 11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.