Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 175-199 October 11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50e523754682a9c857a693e8371129693758572639095e32ae4604ded5fa922a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ff3…938bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,568$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…5d06backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e8…8637backed Yes | 0c | 12,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d22…127cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 43c | 2,473$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.88 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 74c | 1,415$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.76 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,200$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 37c | 974.97$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 11c | 908.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked Yes | 73c | 880.78$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 15c | 755.31$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 718.69$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.32 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 21c | 665.59$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfb…6c8ebacked Yes | 61c | 663.29$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 21c | 647.42$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 74c | 449.47$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…550cbacked Yes | 24c | 448.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 46c | 421.8$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 29c | 352.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…fa3dbacked Yes | 39c | 308$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…19d5backed Yes | 30c | 300.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +255.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 24c | 287.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 31c | 276.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.29 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…7084backed Yes | 62c | 265.15$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…961dbacked Yes | 73c | 252.06$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 67c | 240.42$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…a907backed Yes | 51c | 237$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…845ebacked Yes | 22c | 207$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 22c | 206.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 29c | 200.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 19c | 195.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 27c | 183.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…f8a9backed Yes | 31c | 161.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 40c | 160.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…9839backed Yes | 74c | 153.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 24c | 151.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…97ddbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ec…e5f5backed Yes | 26c | 142.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…eb80backed Yes | 14c | 124.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7074…e8d1backed Yes | 32c | 120.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…d1fcbacked No | 66c | 119.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 28c | 100.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 19c | 100.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 31c | 100.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…ff17backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…c1a5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 77c | 95.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…9bd6backed Yes | 18c | 94.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…2d7fbacked Yes | 24c | 82.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aeb…76f9backed Yes | 32c | 77.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…353bbacked Yes | 75c | 66.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 32c | 60.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 56.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…4542backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead2…89edbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…2ad7backed Yes | 77c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 40c | 50.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…5263backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…3a83backed Yes | 69c | 49.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…e340backed Yes | 38c | 40.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…f5cdbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb36…48aebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb936…eb1abacked Yes | 59c | 36.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…f801backed Yes | 48c | 30.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…5603backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d7…7341backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…9ed5backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…c791backed Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 October 11-18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times October 11-18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.