Music · resolved market
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c9294bbe102a05c9ae2c3008d54ed79167cc4e2f4cdc8fc90edbb731711ddcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd366…7d4fbacked Yes | 15c | 11,847$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 34c | 1,527$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed Yes | 14c | 1,121$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 69c | 1,109$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdf…8cb7backed Yes | 11c | 948.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 900.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes | 12c | 655.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +252.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 11c | 654.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…a346backed Yes | 16c | 622.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…6e07backed Yes | 16c | 610.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…a213backed Yes | 8c | 604.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 7c | 588$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 16c | 553.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…81afbacked Yes | 5c | 536.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…a4e0backed Yes | 15c | 463.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 3c | 411.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…0af7backed Yes | 12c | 405.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…610bbacked Yes | 14c | 346.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 11c | 300.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 17c | 296.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 18c | 282.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 14c | 233.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 57c | 229.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 12c | 203.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…2d7fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…ee8dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b11…c8cebacked Yes | 14c | 193.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 15c | 193.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…68eabacked Yes | 16c | 174.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Yes | 14c | 144.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 17c | 120.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 18c | 120.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…af3bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed Yes | 15c | 97.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e2…7529backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a6…d39ebacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…4df7backed Yes | 18c | 69.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…a522backed Yes | 17c | 66.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…68adbacked Yes | 16c | 65.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.