Movies · resolved market
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $48m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1afa8b59eef6e38be872b71ecabe01fe557fd705cf4c99245957e165521e6ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 4c | 17,528$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.9 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 1c | 14,866$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 7c | 10,800$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed No | 2c | 8,084$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed No | 1c | 7,155$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed No | 1c | 6,821$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…fb63backed No | 2c | 4,319$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 31c | 4,297$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970.43 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 5c | 3,253$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 8c | 2,444$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.59 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked No | 7c | 1,981$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…d296backed No | 1c | 1,691$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e3…d066backed Yes | 17c | 1,467$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 6c | 1,290$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 24c | 1,218$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.96 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,059$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.96 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa766…d04abacked No | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb3…c1d4backed No | 1c | 1,026$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.21 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6baf…3841backed No | 6c | 914.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 56c | 781.65$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.14 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 677.65$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.48 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 25c | 675$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…59a7backed No | 8c | 651.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 616.9$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.44 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked No | 77c | 463.03$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 4c | 461.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 70c | 424$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fb…e35fbacked Yes | 20c | 376.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 66c | 361.47$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 350.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 23c | 350$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 9c | 327.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 33c | 298.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Yes | 23c | 289$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed No | 54c | 239.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6867…25b8backed No | 80c | 219$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 29c | 209.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.62 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 35c | 155$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7c…27a7backed Yes | 49c | 153.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b9…2669backed No | 66c | 143.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 32c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 38c | 110.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 27c | 99.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…ad20backed Yes | 46c | 61.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b4…d27dbacked Yes | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes | 48c | 57.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7651…2fa9backed No | 24c | 52.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…0a77backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…0f37backed No | 71c | 49.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…3a9bbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…559abacked Yes | 31c | 36.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ab…3c3ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…92a8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdca…a03cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $48m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $48-54m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $54-60m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $60-66m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $66m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.