Movies · resolved market
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $60-66m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955979be4b0dd8d6b5da7da2f080d2de221e8f2bec18bbceab3fa73ce41735fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,964,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,964,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a3…92aabacked Yes | 0c | 317,236$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…bf56backed Yes | 0c | 290,800$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe5…d615backed Yes | 0c | 264,339$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…040fbacked Yes | 0c | 264,339$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…f3ccbacked Yes | 0c | 211,638$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…abe2backed Yes | 0c | 209,369$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…cf6dbacked Yes | 0c | 36,223$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…96ddbacked Yes | 0c | 36,123$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 31,381$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.54 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 28,829$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.81 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…dd85backed Yes | 0c | 27,243$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41e…6dd8backed Yes | 0c | 26,943$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…008ebacked Yes | 0c | 26,943$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…2e6dbacked Yes | 0c | 26,943$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…43dcbacked Yes | 0c | 22,662$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…5192backed Yes | 0c | 22,662$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffe…18b1backed Yes | 0c | 18,162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…6b3fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 18c | 8,945$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 20c | 6,233$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.63 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…a30dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,111$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,969$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 2c | 2,159$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,933$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 29c | 900$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 7c | 889.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 11c | 516.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 71c | 466.04$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 422.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a3…eb9cbacked Yes | 4c | 360.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 4c | 355$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…5191backed Yes | 29c | 302$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 297.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 19c | 291.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…a8f1backed Yes | 17c | 242.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…eff0backed Yes | 18c | 222.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 6c | 189.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…ff17backed Yes | 14c | 135.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…430fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f35…7594backed No | 71c | 33.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $60-66m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $48-54m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $54-60m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $48m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $66m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.