Movies · resolved market
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $66m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e587b85a06ee7fa4cb4a1ed6bf4eb3a5970bb7d3f9571fb3ba1e625f2621c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 55,885$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.9 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…a30dbacked Yes | 2c | 14,790$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…6b3fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 2c | 4,937$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 4,474$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 79c | 3,810$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.55 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,271$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.8 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…88febacked Yes | 26c | 2,732$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 2c | 1,786$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…59a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,705$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 11c | 1,402$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.82 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…fb63backed Yes | 4c | 998.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a3…eb9cbacked Yes | 5c | 996.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 12c | 865.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…70a5backed Yes | 4c | 694.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023f…c142backed Yes | 9c | 670$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 71c | 657.83$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.54 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 657$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked Yes | 8c | 521.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…60aebacked Yes | 15c | 520$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 487.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 60c | 476.86$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 5c | 473.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…96e3backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 16c | 265.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 46c | 225$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…8793backed Yes | 10c | 224.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked Yes | 12c | 205.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 12c | 166.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…0a77backed Yes | 10c | 161$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Yes | 26c | 157$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…a1aabacked No | 44c | 113.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…430fbacked Yes | 14c | 106.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…f95cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c89…9fa4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 76c | 91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…e544backed Yes | 14c | 78.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…9f42backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $66m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $48-54m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $54-60m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $60-66m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $48m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.