Movies · resolved market
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $54-60m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b6fa3693de0ea68d5e30c9a13446bccd91a4f3134c86c8f0ccdbd33b632ddb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 32,730$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 31,747$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.12 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,382$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…6b3fbacked Yes | 4c | 8,713$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 27c | 3,243$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.17 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,146$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.04 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,833$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.01 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…a30dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,796$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 4c | 1,057$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 5c | 1,040$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 2c | 905.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 623.54$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.85 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 5c | 600.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 545.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 19c | 530.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 339.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 323.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 4c | 260$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 22c | 227.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…559abacked Yes | 17c | 207.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 21c | 145$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fb…e35fbacked Yes | 31c | 144.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Yes | 30c | 103$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41a…5b03backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $54-60m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $48-54m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $60-66m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $48m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $66m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.