World Politics · resolved market
Trudeau resigns by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32310cd744109d68fd1d81b18f027581ae192343f884eb13475daabcb10150b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $523,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $551,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $523,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 20c | 40,517$8,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,082.69 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 5c | 39,840$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.19 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 7c | 32,758$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.87 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 13c | 20,680$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,717.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 7c | 12,000$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 9,312$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 8,704$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.86 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea13…804ebacked No | 80c | 7,500$5,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,984$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 79c | 6,214$4,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.77 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 3c | 6,100$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.89 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed No | 78c | 5,926$4,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.78 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 8c | 5,761$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.64 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 29c | 5,117$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.48 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 78c | 5,117$3,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.17 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…abc9backed Yes | 23c | 4,505$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 8c | 4,446$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 4,157$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 67c | 3,899$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.82 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 11c | 3,609$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 75c | 3,535$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.53 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 76c | 2,705$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 29c | 2,692$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 1c | 2,655$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…bee7backed No | 80c | 2,648$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed No | 78c | 2,511$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fd…8ae6backed No | 80c | 2,386$1,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 12c | 2,090$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.24 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 63c | 2,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…b02dbacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,940$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…5bfcbacked No | 80c | 1,889$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…d7ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,839$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…2845backed Yes | 24c | 1,833$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…323cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,801$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0add…bf3ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,688$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 72c | 1,644$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.1 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…2418backed Yes | 22c | 1,624$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,592$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.41 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked No | 80c | 1,559$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.71 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…fff1backed Yes | 35c | 1,483$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…471ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,436$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 17c | 1,420$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,377$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.14 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes | 35c | 1,353$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 79c | 1,346$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.26 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…24e2backed Yes | 13c | 1,269$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 77c | 1,260$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.31 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…97a1backed Yes | 20c | 1,253$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…76a2backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 3c | 1,245$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…9e3dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,245$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 28c | 1,210$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…c04bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,166$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Yes | 3c | 1,067$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed Yes | 7c | 1,067$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…d7cdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,063$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 79c | 999.99$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 4c | 988.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked No | 79c | 941.84$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…0048backed Yes | 6c | 900$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…2aa7backed Yes | 9c | 890.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 33c | 804.98$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 18c | 801.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 3c | 711.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…8304backed Yes | 6c | 678.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…2203backed Yes | 3c | 666.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 76c | 663.73$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…4901backed Yes | 28c | 656.88$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked No | 79c | 640$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc065…0fcabacked Yes | 14c | 620.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked No | 70c | 611$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 13c | 594$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…84e9backed No | 73c | 544.21$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…84b1backed Yes | 4c | 532.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Yes | 11c | 529.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 4c | 524.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…a59bbacked Yes | 20c | 503.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739e…00fcbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…8aa7backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 27c | 499.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes | 6c | 499$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…3136backed Yes | 7c | 476.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c0…0088backed Yes | 9c | 471$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 8c | 457$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…3e13backed No | 79c | 451.95$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…4c9abacked No | 78c | 448.72$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 428.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…4b03backed Yes | 7c | 413.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…fcb6backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcd…2cc6backed Yes | 20c | 400$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.