Middle East · resolved market
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ada28f447779e28ad1b41006561d88cf02d0b45851f12b38d84fee1f6ba6a57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $396,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $409,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 2c | 32,056$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,535$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 5c | 11,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 62c | 9,732$6,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,683.49 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 15c | 8,876$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.35 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked Yes | 49c | 8,254$4,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,037.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 61c | 6,525$4,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,008.52 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a36dbacked No | 64c | 5,619$3,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked No | 79c | 5,550$4,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 72c | 5,358$3,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 12c | 5,316$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 12c | 5,066$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.9 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…29cdbacked Yes | 76c | 5,036$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,850 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 38c | 5,000$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.96 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d80…7210backed No | 64c | 4,977$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 70c | 4,903$3,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.38 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 57c | 4,439$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 21c | 4,300$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.89 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…2bb4backed Yes | 0c | 4,190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 59c | 4,042$2,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…7d13backed Yes | 0c | 3,601$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,598$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.43 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…a2d2backed Yes | 41c | 3,590$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 23c | 3,400$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,627 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 73c | 3,181$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed No | 51c | 3,117$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…97ddbacked Yes | 50c | 2,946$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 55c | 2,735$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.69 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 21c | 2,507$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.95 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…9d6abacked No | 64c | 2,466$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.27 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…62bbbacked Yes | 24c | 2,433$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 70c | 2,360$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.58 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 73c | 2,250$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.05 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed No | 72c | 2,221$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 60c | 2,152$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.57 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed No | 32c | 2,105$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…54e7backed Yes | 14c | 2,080$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed No | 43c | 2,005$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 40c | 1,647$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.89 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…4ad3backed Yes | 62c | 1,502$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…5525backed Yes | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes | 77c | 1,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 31c | 1,482$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…8826backed Yes | 51c | 1,396$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 15c | 1,346$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8630…fe33backed No | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f17…fecbbacked Yes | 70c | 1,323$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 20c | 1,256$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.18 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed No | 48c | 1,250$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…f261backed Yes | 30c | 1,240$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +495.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 10c | 1,195$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…c1cebacked Yes | 30c | 1,178$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed No | 80c | 1,126$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…ad53backed No | 36c | 1,100$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed No | 55c | 1,095$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.21 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 27c | 1,086$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 5c | 1,081$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 52c | 1,035$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.25 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…711bbacked No | 70c | 1,023$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…488fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,019$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 46c | 1,014$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 37c | 999.99$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked Yes | 75c | 958.45$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed No | 53c | 951.3$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 43c | 945.38$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.19 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed Yes | 78c | 910$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 20c | 905$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 47c | 892.27$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.25 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d59…133dbacked Yes | 69c | 873.2$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6783…2179backed Yes | 18c | 870.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 18c | 756.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.6 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8194…ed51backed No | 36c | 749.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…3d7cbacked Yes | 20c | 748.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…e758backed Yes | 15c | 734.38$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 41c | 731.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 65c | 729.98$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.19 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…b60fbacked No | 34c | 713.67$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +266.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5448…e2e2backed No | 70c | 710$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9361…f031backed Yes | 65c | 665.38$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…2723backed Yes | 74c | 664.51$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…4991backed No | 73c | 650$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…43cebacked Yes | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…3300backed Yes | 28c | 642.86$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…99dbbacked No | 57c | 617.74$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…9803backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 20c | 588.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.47 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…3f97backed No | 63c | 582.18$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 33c | 576.47$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked Yes | 37c | 572$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 44c | 562.5$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…f400backed No | 62c | 542.99$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9ff5backed Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…aa22backed No | 66c | 528.54$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…0768backed Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.