Us Politics · resolved market
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83b123f0ad85b941624a74ea0d7d460dd7a3ea57cb7f32c2225a7d8ebaa7a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $381,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $362,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 75c | 31,845$23,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,025.69 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 39c | 26,051$10,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,042.54 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 50c | 18,959$9,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,461.72 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 5c | 18,682$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.81 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 64c | 15,500$9,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,505.72 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 39c | 12,888$4,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,900.21 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 53c | 11,819$6,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,599.12 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 20c | 11,626$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,277.27 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 32c | 10,361$3,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,305 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 54c | 10,272$5,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,718.59 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,333$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 47c | 7,687$3,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.87 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…7ae6backed No | 33c | 7,294$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,860.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked No | 59c | 6,412$3,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…8e4cbacked No | 25c | 5,966$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,462.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 57c | 5,562$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,155.35 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed No | 23c | 5,423$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,177.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 5c | 4,932$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.26 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 18c | 4,418$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,606.65 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 10c | 3,963$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.69 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…2b23backed No | 65c | 3,917$2,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…c89dbacked Yes | 27c | 3,470$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 46c | 3,426$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.25 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 14c | 3,053$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.21 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…dc57backed Yes | 53c | 2,842$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked Yes | 23c | 2,501$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 50c | 2,331$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed Yes | 67c | 2,296$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 77c | 2,205$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.96 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 25c | 2,181$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.25 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 29c | 2,172$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.19 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…8211backed Yes | 22c | 2,057$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.68 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 60c | 2,000$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,876$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 50c | 1,864$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.81 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 15c | 1,799$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes | 2c | 1,796$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 70c | 1,534$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.37 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 53c | 1,507$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.42 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked Yes | 62c | 1,500$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 51c | 1,500$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.64 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,454$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.83 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 44c | 1,441$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.51 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 64c | 1,384$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.44 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 56c | 1,331$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.33 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 52c | 1,294$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.17 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 43c | 1,225$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…e566backed Yes | 42c | 1,151$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…334abacked Yes | 46c | 1,092$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1245…da3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,050$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +230%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 28c | 952.01$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.5 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 935.05$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.24 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 60c | 900$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.5 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed No | 35c | 847.22$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…fbbfbacked Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 71c | 782.49$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.25 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bb…7213backed Yes | 46c | 756.18$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 3c | 750$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 49c | 700$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 31c | 662.77$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 33c | 660$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.6 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 50c | 653.18$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.33 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed No | 46c | 652.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.81 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 19c | 617.45$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 70c | 610.12$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.51 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 4c | 543$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 17c | 521.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.89 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 43c | 520$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…9c9cbacked Yes | 65c | 506.92$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 54c | 500.4$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.18 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 53c | 499.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes | 40c | 499.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 51c | 485.19$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.08 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…dce1backed No | 70c | 448.61$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked No | 35c | 435.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.13 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 65c | 429.25$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.55 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…fc4cbacked Yes | 55c | 400$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 24c | 400$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.5 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 51c | 399$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 32c | 395.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 64c | 391$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 53c | 390.76$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.31 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…76b0backed Yes | 48c | 369.86$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 366$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 49c | 349$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.01 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 33c | 333.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.76 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d307backed Yes | 9c | 325$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 36c | 320$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 51c | 299$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.51 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 71c | 278.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…c8abbacked No | 32c | 277.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.