TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$381,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$362,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,253 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96b5…f5e7backed No75c31,845$23,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,025.6916943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes39c26,051$10,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,042.547227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes50c18,959$9,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,461.724650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes5c18,682$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.817420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No64c15,500$9,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,505.728453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No39c12,888$4,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,900.213053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No53c11,819$6,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,599.123212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes20c11,626$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.278921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes32c10,361$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3055733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No54c10,272$5,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,718.5917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes2c8,333$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.61200%0 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes47c7,687$3,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,575.8717225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fd…7ae6backed No33c7,294$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,860.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ba…dfbbbacked No59c6,412$3,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.44850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc942…8e4cbacked No25c5,966$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,462.27742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+51.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed Yes57c5,562$3,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,155.353732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf214…a9e5backed No23c5,423$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,177.241154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+86.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes5c4,932$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.2611940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No18c4,418$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,606.659746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed Yes10c3,963$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.695644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad1…2b23backed No65c3,917$2,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e40…c89dbacked Yes27c3,470$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+57.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No46c3,426$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.258547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes14c3,053$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.2113029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e7…dc57backed Yes53c2,842$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.831741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e1…decdbacked Yes23c2,501$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.712842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9478…63f5backed No50c2,331$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-74.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1327…9237backed Yes67c2,296$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes77c2,205$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.9623149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes25c2,181$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.2511848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No29c2,172$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.198741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe165…8211backed Yes22c2,057$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.683154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No60c2,000$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81015646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes7c1,876$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.253859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes50c1,864$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.8112630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed Yes15c1,799$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.62839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes2c1,796$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No70c1,534$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.374953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No53c1,507$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.424143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked Yes62c1,500$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.83542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed No51c1,500$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.647432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes22c1,454$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.835437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes44c1,441$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.517441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes64c1,384$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.449142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes56c1,331$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.3318033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No52c1,294$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.1723639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No43c1,225$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.561225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfec9…e566backed Yes42c1,151$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d5b…334abacked Yes46c1,092$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.731533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1245…da3cbacked Yes2c1,050$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+230%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No28c952.01$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.56432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes40c935.05$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.2496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No60c900$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.514940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96da…ff74backed No35c847.22$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+184.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa228…fbbfbacked Yes25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No71c782.49$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.2517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7bb…7213backed Yes46c756.18$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes3c750$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.758143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3572462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes31c662.77$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2088030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No33c660$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.614460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed No50c653.18$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.333318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff3e…c6e3backed No46c652.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.816100%6 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+109.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes19c617.45$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.325928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…0245backed Yes70c610.12$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.513438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes4c543$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9113943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No17c521.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.8932029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No43c520$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29423543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa283…9c9cbacked Yes65c506.92$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-79.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No54c500.4$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.184938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No33c500$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3352356.5%13 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+78.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No53c499.98$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.995641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes40c499.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked No51c485.19$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.084351.2%22 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa958…dce1backed No70c448.61$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.97560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa386…a3aebacked No35c435.49$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.133225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed No65c429.25$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.554774.5%35 W · 12 L+7.4wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8c7…fc4cbacked Yes55c400$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed No24c400$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.59846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes51c399$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.44323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No32c395.42$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8312531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No64c391$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.762846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes53c390.76$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.314146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-55.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45a…76b0backed Yes48c369.86$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5360%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c366$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.252154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes49c349$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.012524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked No33c333.76$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.763625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdab1…d307backed Yes9c325$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes36c320$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.75137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed No32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes79c300$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2374839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc726…c39abacked Yes42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1262240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No51c299$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5117850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No46c282.61$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.612766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+43.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed No71c278.16$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.446137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e4…c8abbacked No32c277.72$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.291553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.