TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Yoon arrested by July 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,211,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$996,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,211,811 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 387 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d90…3259backed No28c69,428$19,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,773.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes65c65,570$42,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,093.652744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No5c49,451$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.386883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37fe…09e0backed No3c38,421$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.36425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-66.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes67c34,948$23,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,435.996726.9%18 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x919e…ec2ebacked No0c33,250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+333.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes61c29,798$18,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,558.097828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa12f…3322backed No3c28,500$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df2…4e6cbacked No4c24,425$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7176…25a7backed No3c22,846$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf39…3101backed No1c21,594$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.21136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed No0c19,995$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.995815.5%9 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed No4c18,949$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.54277.4%2 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No7c18,330$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.94112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x287a…9ee2backed Yes69c17,400$11,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.973959%23 W · 16 L+8.0wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+85.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No23c16,047$3,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,654.176238.7%24 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+102.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe863…fa87backed No0c15,809$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed No1c15,000$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.92250%11 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc42…4f1ebacked No8c14,254$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7b…ab48backed No5c13,524$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes75c12,436$9,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.958047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked No4c12,386$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.87825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49a9…c831backed No1c12,344$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.43520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ca…e881backed No3c10,750$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.51338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick18cpaid+296.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7c7…addabacked No3c10,612$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed No3c10,341$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.752015%3 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef0…f55dbacked No3c10,262$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.61040%4 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+471.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes55c10,092$5,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,513.831457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes65c9,395$6,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,318.296331.7%20 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No14c8,374$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.583925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x305d…54afbacked No7c8,129$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.643112.9%4 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6696…57c5backed No4c7,821$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No41c7,734$3,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,191.943842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7f…4cd8backed No4c7,461$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No1c7,283$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.583912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+42.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x761d…0687backed Yes57c7,113$4,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,077.062213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-58.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes73c6,833$5,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.592040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf882…e1ffbacked No8c6,829$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5209…b232backed No0c6,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc802…99a1backed No0c6,386$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde70…81fdbacked No20c6,134$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.95540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No3c6,079$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.222939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed No5c6,016$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.67816.7%13 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b8…5ec5backed No5c5,663$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb840…5d93backed No1c5,628$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5405…41b9backed No13c5,560$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No24c5,319$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.6113139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8594…2357backed No5c5,309$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x70c7…a3dfbacked No5c5,251$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24090%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes50c5,218$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.461747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabc7…ab05backed No2c5,107$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked No30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed No1c4,963$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53bf…2e62backed No4c4,868$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b45…39b8backed No4c4,802$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.362528%7 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff49…69f5backed No9c4,795$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.941127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+235.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b39…54c1backed No6c4,633$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked No7c4,551$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-75.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d65…16d4backed No5c4,402$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1469…f27bbacked No6c4,382$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c96…58aabacked No4c4,009$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad99…ffd9backed Yes71c3,984$2,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.194540%18 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x419d…7817backed No7c3,605$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+109.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b9…172dbacked No5c3,531$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed No1c3,515$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.692128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb438…b113backed No9c3,443$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No15c3,411$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.3116612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed No6c3,392$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c3,392$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.2488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed No9c3,326$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.25230.8%16 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No2c3,303$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.034320.9%9 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No47c3,253$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.66950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0541…5ecfbacked No16c3,103$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbe…e790backed No2c2,946$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.442040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…0974backed No4c2,919$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50d9…6da5backed No4c2,898$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No14c2,800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3925322.6%12 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No59c2,800$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95f7…6c70backed No4c2,749$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.521729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b2…2f77backed No3c2,633$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.03633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+494%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2644…daecbacked No13c2,558$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes72c2,445$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes64c2,435$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.6957636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No6c2,338$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6650%3 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+626.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x865b…5254backed No5c2,302$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x376d…24f4backed No7c2,267$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No61c2,262$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.6727828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e86…4252backed No5c2,109$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.96812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ae…06ecbacked No2c2,098$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No6c2,090$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5918036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2cb…3bbdbacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+102.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e98…ae0fbacked No2c2,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.812429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf484…e14abacked Yes65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3f…77a4backed No4c2,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.31030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes36c1,967$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.273423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes75c1,905$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.6518216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad3…deafbacked No55c1,903$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed No68c1,860$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.195238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No12c1,800$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.81936.8%7 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+87%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No69c1,784$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.32347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+100.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.