TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,259,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,301,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,259,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 375 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4813…ae12backed No7c50,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabab…0c8dbacked No8c37,073$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,89710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e88…ebdfbacked No8c34,484$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,698.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No10c32,622$3,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,186.274623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No1c25,000$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4213918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e6b…b0fabacked No6c24,900$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No6c17,289$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.483528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No6c15,399$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.446883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No4c15,300$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.3825337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cfe…439fbacked No8c14,411$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bec…5df1backed No8c12,771$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcac8…066cbacked No8c12,661$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce1…3048backed No8c12,534$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked No1c10,540$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.58616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid-49.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d16…4528backed No10c10,309$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No7c10,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6801338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6382…9a09backed No8c8,239$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No16c7,634$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.4210127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No6c7,293$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.585420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No2c7,000$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1477317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa85…2fb9backed No0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea6…6ed2backed No6c6,628$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.42540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f9…c5e8backed No8c6,590$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No8c5,900$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.519027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No9c5,661$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.92817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+285.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed No18c5,583$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.9128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f38…29cfbacked No26c5,438$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed No4c5,000$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2059348.4%45 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e02…bfcebacked No3c5,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…ca3bbacked No8c4,197$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc711…9266backed No8c4,163$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2738…dcb9backed No8c3,962$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3312…12f7backed No5c3,830$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dde…9846backed No16c3,828$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked No8c3,798$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.65248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+1,305.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f2…cb77backed No16c3,760$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No14c3,752$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.285715.8%9 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No13c3,735$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.595117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc08…2300backed No15c3,707$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed No10c3,490$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.8870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No6c3,391$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked Yes74c3,355$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.911346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No13c3,341$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.68714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-67.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcca4…848dbacked No8c3,302$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes76c3,239$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.6214240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05b9…d267backed No19c3,212$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14d7…a075backed No31c3,177$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes79c3,055$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.078047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b67…1b07backed No9c3,000$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb6…2124backed Yes69c3,000$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd8…eea5backed No7c2,917$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfab3…85f0backed No7c2,876$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bab…e09ebacked No7c2,829$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No8c2,644$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.91,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd1…d1d9backed No9c2,643$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f3…4347backed No8c2,617$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564a…1d19backed No8c2,605$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5c6…07b7backed No8c2,600$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No12c2,500$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2917423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb9…be64backed No21c2,368$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No7c2,320$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.524221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No6c2,300$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.565728.1%16 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fb…a5b3backed No1c2,143$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211c…6795backed No8c2,029$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No8c2,000$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.921618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…c70ebacked No7c1,958$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No2c1,935$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.891344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9797…4e3dbacked Yes70c1,921$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.41425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc107…9039backed No19c1,881$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-77%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No9c1,872$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0738023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb845…c4dcbacked No8c1,842$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…3e59backed Yes78c1,831$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No15c1,766$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2834726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No8c1,684$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9319043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No4c1,660$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.049423.4%22 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes76c1,541$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.634540%18 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06b2…1fe2backed No7c1,537$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254231%13 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No7c1,428$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0213139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes77c1,416$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.1413413.4%18 W · 116 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cf…cb61backed No8c1,267$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No21c1,253$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.128440.5%34 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6111…4fa7backed No6c1,250$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de0…9bb3backed No8c1,246$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No14c1,210$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8656314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No23c1,203$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.8948224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7042…6e8ebacked No8c1,158$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x188c…3e6fbacked No8c1,157$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d6…bdb9backed No21c1,117$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x792f…a740backed No5c1,117$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4f…13c1backed No7c1,111$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x981a…f343backed Yes64c1,100$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb39e…292dbacked No36c1,100$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39630%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes67c1,100$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.392147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb76e…60a0backed No29c1,074$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff6d…74c1backed No11c1,072$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No8c1,040$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3619237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked No7c1,005$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.332634.6%9 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+26.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2090…10b8backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.