TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,304,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,134,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,304,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 392 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd968…d5ecbacked Yes7c80,000$5,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,539.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Yes12c50,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes8c40,531$3,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,203.744623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked Yes12c37,017$4,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,503.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x680a…d812backed Yes9c25,495$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes7c24,184$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.615230.8%16 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f38…29cfbacked Yes16c22,637$3,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,646.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0cf…e969backed Yes15c18,645$2,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,86810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed Yes16c17,366$2,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,692.04128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes8c15,774$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.412744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x053d…18eabacked Yes7c15,152$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes4c14,016$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.12300%0 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26eb…cc66backed Yes8c12,496$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b3…0df9backed Yes8c12,032$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes6c11,583$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.8957636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1007…17a3backed Yes7c11,375$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe24e…350cbacked Yes10c11,137$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f36…6c9cbacked Yes8c11,115$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes2c10,218$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes11c9,859$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.335117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc065…2b50backed Yes8c9,233$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373d…def6backed Yes5c9,065$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c8,967$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.46883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ed…4eb1backed Yes11c7,134$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa56b…9dfebacked Yes14c6,921$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a1…1149backed Yes12c6,840$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+1,419.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46d0…8d02backed Yes6c6,557$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.12195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+220.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a90…51b8backed Yes8c6,466$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2738…dcb9backed Yes2c6,408$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a45…d590backed Yes10c6,341$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes20c6,142$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.493033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x092c…89c3backed Yes6c5,689$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff0…f7ccbacked Yes0c5,516$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e61…9860backed Yes8c5,483$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ac…aac3backed Yes8c5,301$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb37b…35ffbacked Yes8c5,243$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes8c5,190$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1441…e146backed Yes24c5,027$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10c3…db1dbacked Yes1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x270f…97eabacked Yes10c4,996$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes6c4,990$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.862835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc57b…8281backed Yes14c4,978$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.891250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be7…0ea0backed Yes5c4,923$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfb9…be64backed Yes10c4,775$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8977…22ffbacked Yes13c4,705$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.651414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dfc…207abacked Yes1c4,699$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+125.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb76e…60a0backed Yes28c4,463$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebd1…3cb0backed Yes8c4,423$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd748…0604backed Yes7c4,376$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f7c…9f1cbacked Yes14c4,342$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe186…456dbacked Yes7c4,326$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f48…f1e7backed Yes8c3,995$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c0…8086backed Yes4c3,954$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.15520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43a0…51ccbacked Yes10c3,823$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x531b…9f59backed Yes8c3,810$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79de…5d5cbacked Yes9c3,707$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes9c3,555$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.55614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes8c3,529$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.81248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+1,305.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6484…9d70backed Yes9c3,455$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes14c3,413$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.864459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1bab…e09ebacked Yes8c3,232$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab1…1d0abacked Yes6c3,217$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc701…21ebbacked Yes6c3,093$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes13c3,074$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.527828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafe1…7bbebacked Yes7c3,038$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0536…7a87backed Yes10c3,018$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91c…c1f4backed Yes7c2,942$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c0…943fbacked Yes12c2,908$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda60…595cbacked Yes14c2,874$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe58a…491cbacked Yes8c2,858$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb584…f688backed Yes20c2,815$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…3a6dbacked Yes5c2,803$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe863…e221backed Yes14c2,789$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes8c2,777$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.281618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd572…c2b9backed Yes3c2,706$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ae…6374backed Yes16c2,684$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.421421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4612…cf1abacked Yes8c2,614$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa232…d78ebacked Yes8c2,561$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9e0…dc8abacked Yes8c2,539$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb6…9339backed Yes8c2,526$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2c…9d74backed Yes7c2,524$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes15c2,518$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.5813413.4%18 W · 116 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0c…6950backed Yes8c2,511$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2c4…0512backed Yes8c2,491$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes14c2,346$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.175335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes12c2,149$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.2543243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x867c…5d65backed Yes7c2,138$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.251526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick15cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb30f…9505backed No80c2,134$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.75966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c2,122$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.181344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x211c…6795backed Yes7c2,086$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf40…69efbacked Yes6c2,039$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc769…f72ebacked Yes10c2,018$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd57a…3d1abacked Yes7c2,004$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3808047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes20c2,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39012029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79f2…39d2backed Yes8c1,950$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a6…f6b2backed Yes7c1,851$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e36…82a5backed Yes5c1,840$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ccf…af9dbacked Yes8c1,802$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.