TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$747,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$821,562

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $747,848 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 591 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc24b…7281backed No35c59,534$20,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,836.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc1…4485backed Yes65c59,534$38,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,836.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc067…a108backed No44c30,576$13,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,453.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc7…352bbacked Yes56c30,576$17,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,453.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes42c27,328$11,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,942.163525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc40…4036backed Yes73c23,528$17,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-65.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fcd…03a0backed Yes38c7,083$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,423.11560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No31c6,704$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.7411030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes75c6,464$4,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.57785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick62cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked No38c6,313$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.753823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes77c6,032$4,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.11566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+13.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Yes43c5,179$2,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,953.541330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9266…7562backed Yes67c5,050$3,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+64.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.99922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed No13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+103.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No66c4,981$3,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,264.560%0 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No18c4,763$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.569435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes52c4,520$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.881346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes46c4,176$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.042343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-0.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d2…6b71backed Yes57c3,886$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.93450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes50c3,855$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.921216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed Yes56c3,634$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.34955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No38c3,478$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.1657426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa16f…6df1backed Yes68c3,247$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.83742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed Yes69c3,099$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.32333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No41c2,908$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.573060%18 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1317…ad95backed Yes35c2,819$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,830.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No22c2,757$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.54219%8 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Yes71c2,707$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.891266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes48c2,504$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.792429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes65c2,403$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0329…8519backed Yes79c2,307$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes59c2,300$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.19887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd188…f605backed Yes74c2,290$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x981b…ffecbacked Yes50c2,151$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x454b…8bacbacked Yes64c2,037$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.92742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9dc1backed Yes45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+58.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No34c1,948$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.161910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes78c1,863$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.511675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca2a…e2c7backed Yes78c1,800$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c1,679$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.8173135.6%260 W · 471 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51de…c4d1backed No44c1,636$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…f9dfbacked Yes64c1,561$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Yes69c1,560$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd822…697bbacked Yes45c1,556$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef2f…dd1cbacked Yes25c1,500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No54c1,499$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.962259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf374…aa4dbacked Yes71c1,460$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes72c1,452$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.512948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b9…4267backed Yes47c1,444$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aed…8718backed Yes75c1,432$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c67…13d1backed Yes71c1,410$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes65c1,408$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.6346038.9%179 W · 281 L-31.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked Yes63c1,301$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.321070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1da0…2825backed Yes70c1,258$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3418…a3f2backed Yes27c1,234$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.84825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0607…8bc8backed Yes76c1,177$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.19728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No16c1,155$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.241,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51a0…01e0backed Yes58c1,120$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes62c1,117$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.642642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa862…46e2backed Yes47c1,106$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.34633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked Yes70c1,101$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.46333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes50c1,082$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.854146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes31c1,072$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.562657.7%15 W · 11 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+26.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x416e…64a8backed Yes77c1,066$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d1…e590backed Yes69c1,053$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes47c1,051$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.8924315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes68c1,044$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.54757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf002…6221backed No31c1,030$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Yes75c1,008$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.09650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae78…701cbacked Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed No22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288e…9ca7backed Yes62c991.48$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.32333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes68c985.36$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c950.12$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed No67c950.03$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.7850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No14c948.98$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.863221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No51c937.19$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.785635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29fe…9b8abacked Yes64c904.11$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No16c899.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1448543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x918a…aa22backed Yes49c885.96$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.61442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes70c883.87$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.022642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8674…3219backed Yes68c879.18$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5e…f157backed Yes52c847.59$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe955…47d8backed Yes54c831.48$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes54c801.93$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.899041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacfe…c247backed Yes39c800$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4921369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbda7…fc55backed Yes68c787.97$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4473…f245backed Yes75c780$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes57c772.84$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.84520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes36c758.94$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc6d…10fabacked Yes66c758.12$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Yes45c750.13$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No52c742.71$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.432347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No30c712.51$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7425831.8%82 W · 176 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d3f…de34backed Yes74c674.18$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c49…0144backed No34c670$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db4…4e27backed Yes66c670$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes73c656.52$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+328.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf631…1d27backed Yes59c645.88$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.32520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.