TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,618
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$266,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,618 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes64c6,013$3,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.81442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes44c2,368$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.524143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes65c1,259$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.651625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed Yes30c1,126$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.131741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes64c923.66$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.5213525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e7…d258backed Yes36c850$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes69c757.6$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.854445.5%20 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85db…ef21backed Yes26c635.68$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.9837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99e5…cb71backed Yes17c588.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes29c576.94$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.635100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+127.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes31c573.67$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.832339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d81…08cfbacked No36c570$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x770e…a10dbacked Yes15c552.13$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+225.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x141b…7918backed Yes79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a78…4d4ebacked No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No43c447.86$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.671,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes17c420.58$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.087345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a4…7cc8backed Yes48c403.4$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes45c352.02$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.028555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes28c316.2$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.449721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No68c313.74$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.663821.1%8 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-55.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2856…8d44backed Yes65c290$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b64…d32bbacked Yes65c280$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927d…13a7backed Yes17c259.8$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a57…695fbacked Yes38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c98…35bebacked Yes17c241.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+196.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No79c239.54$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.981833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7303…4f7abacked Yes17c235.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+194.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa204…60c9backed Yes67c223.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.88540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…a395backed No68c210$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-78.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed Yes22c205.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.241118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465d…6726backed Yes64c199.33$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked No47c180.22$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.541822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb44…4fb2backed Yes64c170.22$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed Yes79c166.75$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.99450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf750…f162backed No16c160.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.16520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+509.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No16c159.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.86786.4%5 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-77.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No25c158.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4313118.3%24 W · 107 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23e1…884cbacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe661…ade4backed Yes27c148.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+74.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1953…cc0ebacked Yes66c143$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.622080%16 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No11c132.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.751,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43bd…215fbacked No15c131.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1be6…405fbacked No20c120.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e5…2951backed Yes64c113.16$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No68c112.62$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.092744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.112352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick32cpaid+85.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb3cc…62b1backed Yes18c111.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.111225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d80…68d2backed Yes64c101$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes66c100.1$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6718530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2c…3544backed No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x646d…d31fbacked Yes42c95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.351070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x217b…bfcdbacked Yes74c93.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.98666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceef…ec6dbacked Yes33c90.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.911643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e3…ca27backed No69c87.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602035%7 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bf…aa4bbacked No24c85.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…8ae2backed Yes37c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9fb…e35fbacked Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.131656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae67…faf1backed No65c75.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.181266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d60…5c61backed Yes80c71.47$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ec…559abacked Yes78c70.1$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c9…1669backed Yes38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+151%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7921…4265backed Yes63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd023…74f7backed No38c62.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d26…03febacked Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6b…f255backed Yes43c55.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.05742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2158…fe65backed Yes26c55.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.912458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf00…0704backed Yes32c53.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.72339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d0…75dabacked Yes38c52.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bff…64adbacked Yes38c52.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc3…877fbacked No39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ab…6fd9backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55c8…9bd1backed No23c45.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked No35c44.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.47683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+70.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes28c42.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7648224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc20e…2dd8backed No36c41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f1…8ec6backed Yes77c40.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69df…9434backed Yes66c38.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f2…c99dbacked Yes64c35.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…ea69backed Yes64c35.2$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee4…7f7abacked Yes64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974d…8766backed Yes65c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260e…eb9fbacked Yes65c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x660a…209ebacked No37c33.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e30…43e1backed Yes64c32.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab59…470bbacked Yes64c32.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…cebebacked Yes64c32.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f80…2bbbbacked Yes64c32.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5008…d8d5backed Yes64c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b59…30debacked Yes64c31.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5be…73d4backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26bd…7b0cbacked Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6c…287fbacked Yes63c28.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.57560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes65c26.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.411650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4145…fc24backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52441.7%10 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x688e…a8f1backed No63c22.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.