TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Nigel Farage next Conservative party leader?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,988,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,481

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,988,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b1…53f4backed Yes0c67,304$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fca…10aebacked Yes0c65,954$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc7…8457backed Yes0c64,491$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb79d…4804backed Yes0c64,405$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d9…c234backed Yes0c63,347$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b2…db82backed Yes0c62,347$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad3c…5957backed Yes0c61,327$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8223…7856backed Yes0c61,198$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35cc…6f5fbacked Yes0c61,179$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6124…bb32backed Yes0c55,550$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c40,184$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.034521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c40,030$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.03120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ad…6d9ebacked Yes0c34,196$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x390b…2a00backed Yes0c31,080$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8017…996abacked Yes0c30,630$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b1…4771backed Yes0c30,630$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e81…cfbcbacked Yes0c30,630$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec37…f3f2backed Yes0c29,880$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be0…80f9backed Yes0c29,680$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbebc…e4ccbacked Yes0c28,434$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb74c…21ddbacked Yes0c26,652$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8808…4f66backed Yes0c26,648$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3195…bbe6backed Yes0c26,640$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a6b…61dcbacked Yes0c26,255$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes0c17,637$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae36…a7aebacked Yes0c14,400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee1…398abacked Yes0c11,952$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0abc…dda6backed Yes0c11,699$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+213.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes0c10,998$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.43786.4%5 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-77.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x031f…6e1bbacked Yes0c9,440$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d1…8505backed Yes0c9,086$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6499…34c3backed Yes0c7,450$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26e…ec38backed Yes0c7,450$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74a2…2fe4backed Yes0c7,450$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fe…d0d3backed Yes0c7,440$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae6…7ad9backed Yes0c7,425$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc58…a1dbbacked Yes0c7,425$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d79…1c90backed Yes0c7,425$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc66a…4a07backed Yes0c7,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe585…71debacked Yes0c7,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a37…ccc7backed Yes0c7,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9589…ee26backed Yes0c7,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3f…f5c0backed Yes0c7,375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f6…c018backed Yes0c7,375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a2c…0328backed Yes0c7,375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40c…126dbacked Yes0c7,357$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbed…4a36backed Yes0c7,350$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c7f…ffebbacked Yes0c7,350$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bc…39f9backed Yes0c7,348$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a76…7c46backed Yes0c7,330$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b8…fa07backed Yes0c7,300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a6…5940backed Yes0c7,300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb82…ee62backed Yes0c7,300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f4…45c6backed Yes0c7,275$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e4…bce8backed Yes0c7,275$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb91…937cbacked Yes0c7,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490c…6a61backed Yes0c7,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8067…97a2backed Yes0c7,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c34…0cf6backed Yes0c7,245$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f1…3b8cbacked Yes0c7,150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57eb…f175backed Yes0c7,098$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc84d…e8b5backed Yes0c6,850$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac8…3cdbbacked Yes0c6,709$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d72…1c4cbacked Yes0c6,525$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed8…0afdbacked Yes0c6,525$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e1f…08f5backed Yes0c6,525$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2882…ee48backed Yes0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9577backed Yes0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c31…63ebbacked Yes0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7895…d239backed Yes0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d5…8b43backed Yes0c6,495$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2083…2e65backed Yes0c6,001$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4128…b89fbacked Yes0c5,975$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ff2…f644backed Yes0c5,957$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e8…2368backed Yes0c5,945$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa607…4f72backed Yes0c5,945$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc354…8ba2backed Yes0c5,933$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e1…50f8backed Yes0c5,924$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d8…f3adbacked Yes0c5,924$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa079…850dbacked Yes0c5,924$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0893…61aebacked Yes0c5,923$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f4…813fbacked Yes0c5,900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9576…7cd2backed Yes0c5,893$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d79…f34dbacked Yes0c5,888$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb126…514bbacked Yes0c5,829$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d9…8f09backed Yes0c5,803$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bd…c320backed Yes0c5,792$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b3…5e56backed Yes0c5,778$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6657…e7aabacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705c…9273backed Yes0c3,995$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b38…8a6dbacked Yes0c3,704$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+136.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes1c3,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x611a…b48cbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes1c990$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.87825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…becdbacked Yes4c343.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed Yes5c315.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.061822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.