World Politics · resolved market
Tom Tugendhat next Conservative party leader?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f16ad3e07246cee944535f1b722088f50a64db613fec9e4ab69844a5f31d3af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $598,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $598,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 0c | 32,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 26,729$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 18,584$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 4c | 12,139$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e5…3383backed Yes | 0c | 10,325$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a60…1f46backed Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe1…f51cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…c1eebacked Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…7e8abacked Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0734…8d0cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e9…4a53backed Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9587backed Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…6931backed Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…6fafbacked Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b9…05f5backed Yes | 0c | 9,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a11…a90ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,033$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…904fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…7036backed Yes | 0c | 8,045$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…af64backed Yes | 0c | 7,900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcd…b890backed Yes | 0c | 7,833$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…d61fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,767$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9c…f006backed Yes | 0c | 7,667$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…aae6backed Yes | 0c | 7,333$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…89d8backed Yes | 0c | 7,267$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…1d21backed Yes | 0c | 7,117$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655a…0297backed Yes | 0c | 7,067$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071b…73c0backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf849…a68ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,937$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1d…4ec8backed Yes | 0c | 6,867$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7574…5b6cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…aa44backed Yes | 0c | 6,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…e7ebbacked Yes | 0c | 6,331$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8183…b6f5backed Yes | 0c | 6,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…66b6backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…c4d7backed Yes | 0c | 5,900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5366…756abacked Yes | 0c | 5,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065a…a0abbacked Yes | 0c | 5,626$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50b…b7ccbacked Yes | 0c | 5,531$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…df58backed Yes | 0c | 5,431$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…ad90backed Yes | 0c | 5,400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeedb…8670backed Yes | 0c | 5,331$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…58e8backed Yes | 0c | 5,224$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…a9febacked Yes | 0c | 5,150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…6a6cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494b…2adcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…d4cabacked Yes | 0c | 4,925$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0089…5376backed Yes | 0c | 4,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…395fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62b…94b8backed Yes | 0c | 4,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76c…0ce4backed Yes | 0c | 4,531$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…77c2backed Yes | 0c | 4,131$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…a134backed Yes | 0c | 2,538$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b9…abadbacked Yes | 3c | 1,490$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 2c | 949.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 14c | 680$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 7c | 624.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 14c | 470$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…eb38backed Yes | 14c | 355.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 311$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…ef21backed Yes | 15c | 273.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 26c | 220$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…fb20backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816c…fd47backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tom Tugendhat next Conservative party leader?this page
- David Cameron next Conservative party leader?No won
- James Cleverly next Conservative party leader?No won
- Jeremy Hunt next Conservative party leader?No won
- Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader?Yes won
- Nigel Farage next Conservative party leader?No won
- Priti Patel next Conservative party leader?No won
- Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader?No won
- Suella Braverman next Conservative party leader?No won
- Will someone else be the next Conservative party leader?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.