World Politics · resolved market
David Cameron next Conservative party leader?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca00534dbf265f529c599ab7b6f6ab47846be698cb505659cf86e041feaeef84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $569,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $569,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,427$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa36…638cbacked Yes | 0c | 23,840$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…c173backed Yes | 0c | 14,900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…df78backed Yes | 0c | 14,440$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…e109backed Yes | 0c | 6,845$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…b3efbacked Yes | 0c | 6,845$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…7463backed Yes | 0c | 6,845$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ad…553fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,845$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faa…2f1cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,845$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…5a07backed Yes | 0c | 6,780$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…41b8backed Yes | 0c | 6,773$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…168dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,752$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a3…db73backed Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…667abacked Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…8848backed Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…226fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…454fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…df59backed Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…6933backed Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a7…c9debacked Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…8092backed Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d65…a86bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc63…ced6backed Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…bfb2backed Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0761…8470backed Yes | 0c | 6,742$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…eb4cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,715$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7051…4a06backed Yes | 0c | 6,715$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc58…a1dbbacked Yes | 0c | 6,373$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…40e7backed Yes | 0c | 6,077$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…1b54backed Yes | 0c | 6,077$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…bf41backed Yes | 0c | 6,077$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…1a6fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,063$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2d…9ca5backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…ed40backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4a…85edbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5e…c16fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 4,003$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…f4b8backed Yes | 1c | 2,447$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…585cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,701$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…6f10backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- David Cameron next Conservative party leader?this page
- James Cleverly next Conservative party leader?No won
- Jeremy Hunt next Conservative party leader?No won
- Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader?Yes won
- Nigel Farage next Conservative party leader?No won
- Priti Patel next Conservative party leader?No won
- Robert Jenrick next Conservative party leader?No won
- Suella Braverman next Conservative party leader?No won
- Tom Tugendhat next Conservative party leader?No won
- Will someone else be the next Conservative party leader?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.