TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$649,030
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$617,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $649,030 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 485 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd748…2125backed No32c25,734$8,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,320.43351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No5c22,253$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.6542818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No36c20,657$7,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,345.5235347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No25c18,469$4,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,528.4519531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No46c16,572$7,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,555.321259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d73…bae7backed Yes73c15,051$10,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,052.52540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No23c14,582$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.6226423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c0…81d6backed No0c11,023$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes62c10,791$6,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,100.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.977247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes56c9,999$5,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,405.1451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No26c8,668$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.640828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac56…6dadbacked No1c7,855$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a9…33f6backed No3c7,662$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No1c7,212$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.371976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169a…c46abacked Yes64c6,719$4,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.091346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No19c6,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1204126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No37c5,847$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.915141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c96…3eefbacked Yes71c5,474$3,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.992540%10 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+105.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fed…981cbacked No1c5,444$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No40c5,250$2,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,122.473225%8 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes55c5,221$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.97862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+45.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6b3…24e2backed No2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No2c4,943$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4815626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d57…9569backed No2c4,259$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe333…e05cbacked No11c4,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa198…106abacked No35c4,000$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3902347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes73c4,000$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.9920749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c3,800$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.38964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No40c3,728$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.613953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe88…90f5backed Yes72c3,334$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.175225%13 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ac…2287backed Yes71c3,295$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No32c3,250$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.2911537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42df…e54abacked No2c3,157$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes51c3,076$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.3347334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes59c3,057$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.53875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+87.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbc74…216cbacked No67c2,834$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.41425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No38c2,766$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.599154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes78c2,757$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.1926138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No34c2,716$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.126018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No13c2,700$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.3814724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes69c2,692$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.814050%20 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No22c2,683$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.552055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes44c2,633$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.778641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes45c2,621$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.022347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0666…9f1bbacked No2c2,578$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.67728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc20…981cbacked Yes60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+102.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc463…0821backed No2c2,498$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a4…6b6bbacked No40c2,453$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8627…1630backed Yes68c2,270$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.841353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes59c2,245$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.814060%24 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes54c2,244$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.4234432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes66c2,213$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.991540%6 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes71c2,087$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ce…1825backed Yes67c2,079$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.151485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+43.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No65c2,050$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.4227643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No33c2,041$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.538036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed No2c2,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.291020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-50.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes62c1,780$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.036450%32 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4324…a086backed No28c1,764$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes63c1,740$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.511861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3ab…29c7backed Yes58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.141190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick61cpaid+58.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes62c1,713$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.998137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes66c1,653$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.772748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9426…0b66backed Yes63c1,614$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7020…fd20backed Yes65c1,597$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.622330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,569$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.511,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes48c1,565$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.169434%32 W · 62 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes49c1,440$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.297360.3%44 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7498…60adbacked Yes68c1,421$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.34850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes30c1,400$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.2614940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No32c1,400$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44820336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c4…f7b4backed No3c1,374$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+307.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b58…4adfbacked No36c1,364$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d1…a4fbbacked Yes37c1,364$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.951030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc298…a912backed No34c1,332$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No45c1,316$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.4645843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes70c1,288$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.417946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes44c1,273$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.6131241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No28c1,273$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.3340433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No2c1,253$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9216447.6%78 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No2c1,210$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.711332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes43c1,199$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.661942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc32d…02c2backed No1c1,191$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes79c1,136$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.345743.9%25 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0672…19c3backed No2c1,133$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13b…e29dbacked No2c1,130$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a7…7ad9backed No39c1,118$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8545…d84bbacked Yes65c1,094$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Yes57c1,078$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.092532%8 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No48c1,043$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50338237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…4120backed No2c1,031$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes62c1,001$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.9117740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x372b…cbf5backed No2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a98…5950backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+58.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed No48c999.73$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.855549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d8c…18aabacked No1c949.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b3…f830backed Yes69c942.55$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No66c917.84$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.7737740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.