Tweets · resolved market
Elon Musk tweets 35+ times Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f95d9ef507dd41d0b17bdbcd10a3b2f2930e3fd8b9e9f1dcbe65c502ee6154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 29c | 3,211$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.09 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 1,005$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 76c | 951.39$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.33 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 65c | 769.02$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.97 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…b277backed Yes | 69c | 651.04$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 68c | 596.35$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.29 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 69c | 464.18$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990d…5463backed No | 31c | 430.35$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…906fbacked Yes | 69c | 326.65$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked No | 36c | 278.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…d715backed Yes | 80c | 275$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed No | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 65c | 231.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…b2aabacked No | 45c | 224$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 68c | 201.62$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed No | 25c | 199.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…a653backed Yes | 69c | 199.32$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 34c | 184.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked No | 35c | 173.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…a8d3backed No | 12c | 169.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…2e10backed Yes | 75c | 150.93$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…3725backed No | 32c | 144.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…475dbacked Yes | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 58c | 100.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 21c | 100.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed Yes | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd39c…6898backed No | 18c | 81.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 66c | 76.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…4b1fbacked Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…1d03backed No | 31c | 68.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 36c | 55.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…ea54backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed No | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…3a34backed Yes | 64c | 33.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 72c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 61c | 29.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 55c | 26.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…3193backed Yes | 71c | 26.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1a…2536backed Yes | 68c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…90b9backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.