Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef00c9e8b1eb7eb322ccc13b67cfa35d4291017a0aa46d09f3e2f3e3b255e3d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 17c | 9,790$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 16c | 4,648$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.24 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 15c | 2,100$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.06 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 8c | 2,100$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 80c | 1,890$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 15c | 1,202$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.34 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 17c | 1,061$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 17c | 793.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 17c | 751.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…248cbacked Yes | 15c | 472.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 14c | 435$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…d900backed Yes | 12c | 272.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 232.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…475dbacked No | 75c | 93.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 12c | 89.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 73.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in September?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $4.50 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.00 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in September?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.