Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab3d2a9a8d24ea406bed387cbaa3579b36d34a95977ef50ca18ee3df1f4862a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 58c | 6,448$3,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,698.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed No | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,750$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 31c | 1,222$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 7c | 1,110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 14c | 998$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.28 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 978.83$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.08 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 15c | 932$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 23c | 825$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.7 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 19c | 720.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…d900backed Yes | 69c | 429.89$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 62c | 400$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 338.46$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…248cbacked Yes | 56c | 205$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…ccfabacked Yes | 79c | 167$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 80c | 155$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 34c | 102$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 16c | 101.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 73c | 100.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 85.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 46c | 78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 76c | 76.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 55c | 63.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 62.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 36.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 47c | 31.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…d36abacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 71c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in September?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $4.50 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.00 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.