Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd283c762109056e482475ee0008e60a06cb112ec3ccde5c2609014be432fa6a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 25c | 6,099$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed No | 76c | 5,799$4,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7937backed Yes | 17c | 1,919$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 1,400$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 18c | 1,112$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 25c | 956.59$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.54 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 10c | 401.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…b1bbbacked Yes | 14c | 329.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…d900backed Yes | 9c | 318.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 11c | 311.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 16c | 239.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…b55ebacked Yes | 13c | 148.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 29c | 133.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 79c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…8e45backed Yes | 13c | 111.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…27adbacked Yes | 16c | 108.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…2183backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…6361backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 77c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in September?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $4.50 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.00 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in September?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in September?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.