TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Alexandra Leitão be elected Mayor of Lisbon?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,187
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,620

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,187 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Yes32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6401010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-76.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes16c1,396$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.031612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ca…faa7backed No68c1,307$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.93771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c1,177$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.591,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes14c1,173$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5137117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes27c1,121$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.018821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No75c1,065$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.122365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc289…7878backed Yes26c741.64$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.481127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes20c633.2$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.144921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Yes22c575.64$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1570%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes7c472.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.129328%26 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes18c440$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.283023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Yes33c413.19$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.24938.8%19 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206732.8%22 W · 45 L+0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabd2…1e26backed Yes9c356.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33da…7270backed Yes32c351$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+316.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes36c329.77$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3713343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes30c326.62$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9920325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81c9…4a47backed Yes24c317.32$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.662638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No78c316.2$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.255072%36 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Yes21c313$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.731435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed Yes31c307.38$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.856141%25 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+93.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes24c306$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6715026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Yes10c300.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.632729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2850…0c6cbacked Yes20c282.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e58…aebebacked No71c250.94$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.774100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes33c243.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805117.6%9 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf7c…051cbacked Yes27c206.44$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6619623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x169e…dd29backed Yes18c194.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.86825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0cf2…423abacked Yes29c175.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3613…0061backed Yes11c171.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes24c167.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.68143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13cf…4441backed Yes25c167.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.881154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No68c160.61$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a48…01b6backed Yes18c160.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b05…1483backed Yes23c151.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca7…e83dbacked Yes17c144.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes29c137.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…bb2abacked No76c130.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.98955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad7b…63dabacked No72c129.32$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.69035.6%32 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaca…49e6backed Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2266…3ed0backed Yes35c113.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d5…d028backed Yes27c110.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes10c107.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.082330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ff…8283backed Yes22c103.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4356…2903backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cb…5c7bbacked Yes27c91.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4e…da31backed Yes33c91.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe199…1188backed Yes24c90.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc512…50c6backed Yes22c90.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf1…7fc8backed Yes23c85.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes18c83.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.354814.6%7 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27c6…1b2cbacked Yes40c83.08$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cc…b1ccbacked Yes28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f4…12f4backed Yes23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58db…3fd1backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc6f…9f10backed Yes20c76.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.11137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick32cpaid-78.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6193…d924backed Yes18c73.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.062931%9 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c37…2994backed Yes24c73.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3448…8165backed Yes17c70.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-47.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes36c66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.683432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes20c63.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4312040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b99…2d24backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5838…367cbacked Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22560%15 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No69c58.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.859248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b4…c354backed Yes36c55.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb58c…c25fbacked Yes27c54.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd488…83e7backed Yes37c54.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes28c53.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0655…475dbacked Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b6…612ebacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+171.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8afb…1adfbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+53.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa597…eb70backed Yes29c48.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes28c44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.327631.6%24 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42a3…66d5backed Yes34c43.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No75c42.38$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.456114.8%9 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cab…b113backed Yes38c42.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x337b…9e3ebacked Yes26c41.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes41c39.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1848224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…815dbacked Yes46c34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3510…d8d3backed No75c26.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No79c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0411738.5%45 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.