World Politics · resolved market
Will Carlos Moedas be elected Mayor of Lisbon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe13e19e8e178d2994435d2d62ccebc272a3c89044716f1ef34042e2055e66e2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed No | 32c | 9,568$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 8,162$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.37 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed Yes | 66c | 6,498$4,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…4309backed Yes | 70c | 1,565$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 73c | 1,406$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abb…452ebacked No | 35c | 893.07$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Yes | 69c | 686.75$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…a75bbacked Yes | 67c | 601.49$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6504…6bbbbacked Yes | 72c | 543.17$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…ecadbacked No | 19c | 528.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 28c | 465.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 41c | 461.15$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.77 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 28c | 445.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 70c | 435.61$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 28c | 379.93$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ef…0cd8backed Yes | 70c | 318.75$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe1…191abacked Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 56c | 301.52$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.33 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…bb52backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 74c | 287.17$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…3ed0backed Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…e2afbacked Yes | 74c | 243.48$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 9c | 239.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 14c | 233.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78f0…bfcabacked No | 41c | 183.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 23c | 182$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 75c | 179.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…4441backed Yes | 80c | 174.31$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 14c | 169.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 22c | 168.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d7…868bbacked No | 34c | 166.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…db7fbacked Yes | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked No | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…54bfbacked Yes | 68c | 136$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…ab31backed Yes | 74c | 135.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed No | 31c | 129.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…5128backed No | 30c | 112.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 72c | 104$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 57c | 102.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 23c | 101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…dd29backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…23a8backed Yes | 76c | 94.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 69c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…99bebacked Yes | 60c | 83.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 32c | 78.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2d…8a5fbacked Yes | 67c | 75.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked No | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 74.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 21c | 73.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…dbebbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…2a38backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…234dbacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f0…f19fbacked Yes | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…5476backed No | 33c | 60.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec07…6111backed Yes | 71c | 50.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…2edfbacked No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ff…f475backed Yes | 50c | 48.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434f…7d13backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8d…d05bbacked Yes | 69c | 38.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…bb2abacked Yes | 65c | 34.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…3cfebacked Yes | 72c | 33.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…1288backed Yes | 68c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…1beabacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…557abacked Yes | 68c | 29.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…4d65backed Yes | 62c | 28.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…953dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…9897backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…a73fbacked Yes | 73c | 27.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 76c | 26.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe386…3d99backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…a826backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…6d23backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…35debacked Yes | 77c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bd…5a7bbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x940d…c7a6backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Moedas be elected Mayor of Lisbon?this page
- Will Alexandra Leitão be elected Mayor of Lisbon?No won
- Will Bruno Mascarenhas be elected Mayor of Lisbon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.