Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x124b91d56d15c5e82af5bcf45d21419c2567f66428c85d662810b3c04a2cdf04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3024…b996backed Yes | 11c | 2,135$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 17c | 987.05$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 954.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 12c | 903.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…c7e6backed Yes | 15c | 625.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 515.51$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…0753backed Yes | 18c | 444.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…1791backed Yes | 7c | 444.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…66fbbacked Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +279.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 22c | 373.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked Yes | 11c | 368.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 345$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…789bbacked Yes | 7c | 304.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 20c | 288.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 19c | 264$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 258.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 31c | 255$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…1d86backed Yes | 12c | 252.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 15c | 148$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 133.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…effebacked Yes | 14c | 111.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 42c | 87.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…335ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 59.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…475dbacked No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 50.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…ddf8backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…36acbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e5…b7b0backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.