Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf70815830af2e9b951efab2c55d1f9c7b011be82e1986de71f816edbe66c127d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 57c | 1,661$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.65 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 33c | 1,570$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.61 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa370…bf91backed Yes | 1c | 1,383$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 62c | 1,202$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.08 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 36c | 1,177$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed Yes | 2c | 1,110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 40c | 914.5$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.07 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 852.76$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes | 39c | 741.95$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 58c | 611.02$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 61c | 537.04$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.1 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 522.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 492.05$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.65 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 24c | 466.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 38c | 457$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed Yes | 37c | 435.29$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…1791backed Yes | 34c | 410.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed No | 70c | 388.73$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 36c | 331.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 29c | 300.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…6c18backed Yes | 41c | 250.27$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 249.05$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 39c | 190$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…b996backed Yes | 22c | 184.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 46c | 183.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…7fbdbacked Yes | 39c | 177.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…effebacked Yes | 52c | 171.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 161.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 46c | 156$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 61c | 146.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 145$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 144.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 132.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…a19ebacked Yes | 46c | 131.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…789bbacked Yes | 24c | 127.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…9531backed Yes | 17c | 123.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 47c | 121.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 23c | 110.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4877…e0a3backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 19c | 108$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…3ed5backed No | 78c | 96.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…51d5backed Yes | 47c | 93.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ce…271dbacked Yes | 44c | 93.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…0de0backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 38c | 80.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…d10cbacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 70c | 75.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 39c | 66.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked Yes | 23c | 64.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…6e88backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd518…c051backed Yes | 50c | 60.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 49c | 55.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed Yes | 37c | 53.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 38c | 53.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…1d86backed Yes | 41c | 52.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…278ebacked No | 64c | 50.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 73c | 49.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 60c | 47.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…509cbacked No | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff6…f813backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7926…fa02backed Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed No | 57c | 40.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 37c | 40.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2a…a4a4backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…2e9ebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…90f3backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…cdd1backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…85c6backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…3024backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd8…7aedbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…39afbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 62c | 39.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…6fc8backed Yes | 29c | 37.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…44c8backed Yes | 40c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…735ebacked Yes | 43c | 30.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 57c | 24.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 23.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 21.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.