Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cde95541b9c3b192d3c093e1f92e5e767cb3c941b270a008d1e2f8012bfd8bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3024…b996backed Yes | 4c | 1,019$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…1791backed Yes | 3c | 609.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 7c | 557.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 15c | 399.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 79c | 381.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…1d86backed Yes | 5c | 312.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 304.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 123$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 78.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1314…1c80backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 2140 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.