Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x309271800d036ea2774540a46036b6375157724f492366d30baacb834cd0c236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 52c | 6,554$3,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,378.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…9af1backed Yes | 27c | 6,150$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,470.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 63c | 4,922$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…46e5backed Yes | 7c | 4,312$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,030.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 13c | 3,831$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,345.89 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 77c | 3,764$2,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,885 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 65c | 2,696$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 8c | 2,536$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 2,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 17c | 2,223$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 64c | 2,044$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.67 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 70c | 2,029$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…5215backed No | 54c | 1,509$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…2f71backed No | 73c | 1,370$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 47c | 1,255$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.22 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 7c | 1,233$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +291.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 37c | 1,221$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.59 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24be…183ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,215$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,131.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…6b00backed Yes | 21c | 1,184$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +380.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed No | 64c | 1,161$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.43 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 13c | 1,145$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.81 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,142$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…cc21backed Yes | 17c | 1,078$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +502.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…f41cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,078$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +498.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…0721backed No | 79c | 926$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…6890backed Yes | 73c | 867.46$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 769.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.37 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 46c | 700$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8c…18fdbacked Yes | 23c | 686.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…30b0backed No | 60c | 565.51$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…2a27backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 12c | 470.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 12c | 450$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 441$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 77c | 417.16$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 77c | 387$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 40c | 365.65$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 32c | 349.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 342.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.01 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 15c | 340.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…1a83backed Yes | 18c | 321.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 16c | 307.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc442…8d9cbacked Yes | 29c | 306.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 18c | 290.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a74…49e7backed Yes | 29c | 286.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 48c | 265$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…3684backed Yes | 46c | 260.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 21c | 260.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.93 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…8a9abacked No | 79c | 258$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 53c | 257.1$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.57 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…38a3backed Yes | 34c | 239.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed Yes | 14c | 227.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…5b9fbacked Yes | 7c | 200.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…4fb8backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 34c | 194$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 50c | 180$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 176.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 168.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 11c | 162.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.88 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 156$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 22c | 155$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e737backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +315.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 69c | 141$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 33c | 137.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 18c | 132.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1259…0053backed Yes | 29c | 122.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 50c | 115.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…e40bbacked Yes | 9c | 113.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,016.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed Yes | 47c | 96.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 55c | 94.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…475dbacked Yes | 78c | 89.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 87.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed No | 21c | 83.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 17c | 82.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…f0e4backed No | 59c | 70.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 38c | 69.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…ad0bbacked Yes | 51c | 69.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d18…c3b4backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed No | 32c | 64.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…f80fbacked Yes | 39c | 64.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…f92fbacked No | 69c | 63.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…8916backed Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…7e29backed Yes | 54c | 62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16f…0ddabacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 62c | 57.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 55.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380a…b437backed Yes | 45c | 49.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 48c | 46.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 45c | 44.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?this page
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?Yes won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?No won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.6% by March 31?No won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.8% by March 31?No won
- Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 5.0% by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.